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The Price of Oil/Gas and why

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Posted by: robwbright---------------------

It hasn't really risen - the dollar has dropped in value thanks to the fed printing more and more paper money that's not backed by anything - from the American Geological Institute:

""The steep increase in the price of crude oil in the United States remains a headline issue, along with the falling US dollar. The drop in the dollar has caused concern in oil-producing countries which use it as the economic basis for the commodity, and often their currency. The chart below shows the spot market price of crude oil per barrel (BBL) in US dollars and in euros from 2001 to today. The price of oil has grown faster relative to the dollar than to the euro. Yet, a portion of the rise in oil prices is due to the fall of the value of the dollar. The graph also shows the number of barrels of crude oil per cost of an ounce of gold, demonstrating the parallel growth in commodity pricing.

If the US dollar had remained strong in the global economy, oil might, in theory, be around $65 per barrel. However, oil is priced in dollars, and oil prices continue to rise. The impact of increased oil prices can not be ignored in the US economy, and, in turn, can further weaken the dollar. Resource economics is a complex feedback loop where today’s resource boom is driven by many external factors."

Republican longshot candidate Ron Paul has talked about how monetary policy, as much as energy policy, is behind inflationary problems like the run-up in oil prices."

My comment - if the dollar was backed by gold (as it was decades ago), we would be paying the same amount for oil as in 2001 - see graph for proof.

Thanks for the $3.50 regular unleaded, Federal Reserve!



Posted by: BigRedAF---------------------

Lots of oil in Iraq that's supposed to be paying for the "War on terror".

Were we lied to again?



Posted by: XRpredator---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by robwbright
My comment - if the dollar was backed by gold (as it was decades ago), we would be paying the same amount for oil as in 2001 - see graph for proof.

Thanks for the $3.50 regular unleaded, Federal Reserve!

So, you're saying it's all Nixon's fault.



Posted by: Ol'89r---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by XRpredator
So, you're saying it's all Nixon's fault.


You betcha big guy.

We can all thank 'Tricky Dick' for eliminating the gold standard.



Posted by: knowiam---------------------

Diesel Fuel- $4.29/gal. Lake Forest, CA. 4/16/2008

Fed Tax: $.24/gal
State Tax: $.18/gal
Local Tax: $.34/gal

I have to ask...What's in it for me?.... My roads are still as bad as ever!

At least I got my MPG [13mpg]
Ken



Posted by: rickyd---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by robwbright

Thanks for the $3.50 regular unleaded, Federal Reserve!

Where???? I just paid $3.93 regular unleaded. Saw Diesel for $4.39



Posted by: mudronin---------------------

I live in an oil producing state! yet I still pay the national average or maybe a penny or 2 less. Much of the problem is not the oil as the refining capacity. In Tulsa, they shut down 4 refineries(I think that is what was reported mid-year '07) in the lat 70s early 80s and were moved to the Houston area for the port access.

You can never fully trust any news cast though. Point being its been years since the EPA allowed a new refinery to be built after the moves.

I agree on the gold standard and its impact on the dollar value. I trade currency on occasion and it has been very drastic over the last 2 years.



Posted by: MSB22---------------------

its all bs everyones getting poorer and the oil companies are building palaces :D...


im about to start riding a bicycle to work and the only thing there gonna get from me is gas for my ktm, getting a little ridiculous



Posted by: J-man---------------------

i told my family that its about time we all get little honda trail 90's to ride to work everyday.



Posted by: ignition retard---------------------

Consequences of the nature of man. Perhaps learning about sustenance farming would be a prudent choice for the future. I'm still hoping Ron Paul will win.



Posted by: tyler_43---------------------

gas is still cheap when you consider how much people pay for a bottle of water...



Posted by: XRpredator---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler_43
gas is still cheap when you consider how much people pay for a bottle of water...

or a case of beer



Posted by: robwbright---------------------

If you recall, FDR confiscated all gold from Americans. The Fed Gov's tearing down the gold standard started long before FDR. The initial problem was the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

As I recall, over on the political forum I predicted serious problems with oil prices as a result of Fed monetary policy and the Iraq war 3 years ago - and I was ridiculed by some.

Refusal by the government to obey sound financial principles will continue to degrade the value of the dollar and will - if continued long enough - lead to a depression in this country.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MSB22
its all bs everyones getting poorer and the oil companies are building palaces. . .


True - everyone is getting poorer. However, that's not the oil companies fault - you need to look elsewhere for that - you might want to try starting with your Congressman.

From here:

http://mises.org/story/2940

The profit margins of a few selected industries are as follows:

Periodical Publishing 24.9%
Shipping 18.8%
Application Software 22.5%
Tobacco 19%
Water Utilities 10.2%
Major Integrated Oil and Gas 9.5%
Hospitals 1.4%
Drugstores 2.8%

My comment inserted: While it's true that they sell A LOT of gas, the profit margins are not that high.

Article continued: Gas prices are up and oil executives are once again testifying before Congress. Clearly, many politicians, pundits, and consumers lament the rising cost of gas. Before we join them in their chorus, let us take a step back and ask this question: Are gas prices really all that high?

A change in price can be a result of inflation, taxes, changes in supply and demand, or any combination of the three.

First, we need to take into account inflation. The result of the Federal Reserve printing too much money is a loss of purchasing power of the dollar: something that cost $1.00 in 1950 would cost about $8.78 today. (Note: That's caused by the dollar not being backed by anything - i.e. gold, silver, platinum, whatever. . . Increase the money supply, decrease the value of each dollar.).

As for gas prices, in 1950 the price of gas was approximately 30 cents per gallon. Adjusted for inflation, a gallon of gas today should cost right at $2.64, assuming taxes are the same.

But taxes have not stayed the same. The tax per gallon of gas in 1950 was roughly 1.5% of the price. Today, federal, state, and local taxes account for approximately 20% of gas's posted price. Taking inflation and the increase in taxes into account (assuming no change in supply or demand) the same gallon of gas that cost 30 cents in 1950 should today cost about $3.13.

Neither have supply or demand remained constant. The world economy is growing. China and India are obvious examples. At the same time, Americans continue to love driving SUVs and trucks. As for supply, we are prohibited (whatever the reasons may be) from using many of the known oil reserves in our own country. Furthermore, due to government regulation, the last oil refinery built in the United States was completed in 1976. In addition, the Middle East is politically unstable which leads to a risk premium on the world's major source of oil. It is obvious that the demand for oil has grown while supplies have been restricted.

(Again, thank the Fed Gov for restricting the supply.).

The average price of gas in the United States today is approximately $3.25. The question is, why are gas prices not higher than they are?

The water utility industry has higher profit margins than major oil and gas firms! Why isn't every CEO with profit margins above that of the oil companies made to testify before Congress for "price gouging"? Clearly, greedy corporate profits are not the issue.

Again, while just over nine percent of the price of a gallon of gas goes to oil company profits, approximately twenty percent of the price of a gallon of gas is composed of federal, state, and local taxes.

Those who want the government to step in and do something about the high price of gas are either forgetful of recent history or too young to remember the oil crisis of 1979. During that time, restrictions on the price of gasoline led to the inability of some to find gas at all. Price ceilings always lead to shortages. The only thing worse than having to pay "too much" for gas is not being able to find gas at any price.

Let us not be swayed by politicians out for power or by reporters out to create news where none exists. Facts and economic logic should prevail rather than rhetoric.



Posted by: Shaw520---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by XRpredator
or a case of beer


Case of beer - $15 = have fun all night
4 gallons of gas - $15 = almost getting to work.




Posted by: ignition retard---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by robwbright
If you recall, FDR confiscated all gold from Americans. The Fed Gov's tearing down the gold standard started long before FDR. The initial problem was the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.......

.........

Let us not be swayed by politicians out for power or by reporters out to create news where none exists. Facts and economic logic should prevail rather than rhetoric.


Here here. I'm with you 99% accept that oil supply is of course decreasing much faster than new reserves are found. The ability to extract it has however become more efficient offsetting the decrease. Search "Huberts Curve". Other than that you are right on, but I think your waisting your time on a lost cause, the federal reserve will ruin this country. It can't be stopped, Ron Paul was our last hope now there's none, were just along for the ride.



Posted by: knowiam---------------------

The profit margins of a few selected industries are as follows:

Periodical Publishing 24.9%
Shipping 18.8%
Application Software 22.5%
Tobacco 19%
Water Utilities 10.2%
Major Integrated Oil and Gas 9.5%
Hospitals 1.4%
Drugstores 2.8%

I am thinking that if the profit margin [for oil] stated above were a dog....that dog would not hunt.

How is it possible that the margin could be so low [and expenses so high] for an industry whose collective profits are measured in 100's of BILLIONS? [2006 major integrated Oil and Gas profits reported as $101 billion]

Either, I don't get it.... or, I'm not buying it!

Ken (tired of EXPERTS P'n on my back and telling me it's raining)



Posted by: XRpredator---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by knowiam
Either, I don't get it.... or, I'm not buying it!

No, you *are* buying it. Along with everyone else in the world.



Posted by: Jaybird---------------------

Unless we stop bowing down to the environmentalist lobbying groups, and pull our heads out of our asses, this thing will have no end.

It is simple to me...reduce regulations...ridiculous regulations. And allow oil producers to actually invest their profits in ANY WAY THEY SEE FIT. Just like other industries do.
And stop looking at the profits of an oil producer and screaming how much they make, and how bad they are raping us, unless you actually have a grasp of their industry.

And the gov stepping further into the muck and mandating 40 mpg automobiles is a big mistake. Only fools advocate such mandates. Fools, or those who haven't the slightest clue as to what supply and demand entails.

The free market, a TRULY free market, is the only answer.
Government regulation, mandates, taxation,and left wing lobbying are the downfalls of our society, be it the oil industry or any other industry.

This stuff gaulds my ass. Especially when I see a presidential candidate run a commercial on TV throwing down on an oil company by name, and trying to create more unrest by explaining how bad it is that they make so much profit. Good grief.
Pinheads speaking to pinheads is all I can say. That particular candidate couldn't explain one bit of the industry to you or I. But then, none of the current ones could.
Pinheads one and all.
SO, I feel we are in deep fecal matter, for a few years anyway.

And no, I didn't read any of the previous posts.



Posted by: kiwijohn---------------------

I heard a recent radio article on a Kiwi woman living in Iran who said the locals were up in arms as the petrol price had doubled in the last 2 months to .... wait for it........ 11 cents a litre (thats about NZ$1.00 a gallon or US$80 cents a GALLON.)

Our gas is just on NZ$2.00 a litre or NZ$8.00 a gallon so that mkaes it about US$6.40 a US Gallon. NZ prices have always been high for gas as we live in the middle of nowhere, but still - it makes me very pleased I have a company car! (for now..... )

The oil situation has creases and folds that we will never ever know about, but one thing is for sure - it's not going to get any better.



Posted by: Isobareng---------------------

a couple of gas/oil trivia items

15% is the amount of oil the USA gets from all the Arab states combined

the bulk of our imported oil comes from Canada

oil is traded on the world market just like rice or wheat as a commodity

speculators at the stock exchanges have driven the price of oil nearly 30%

oil companies make 5 to 9% profit margin

In the top 10 oil companies none are owned by USA firms

hope this helps

D



Posted by: KRTRider---------------------

4,29 $/gallon for diesel fuel???

We pay 8,25$ per gallon....



Posted by: jasonent0613---------------------

i want the black dude to win.



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

^^^ Stewart should be back for the Outdoor Season.



Posted by: KRTRider---------------------





Posted by: kiwijohn---------------------

Oil price hit US$122.00 per barrel today.....



Posted by: kiwijohn---------------------

US$132.00 a barrel today..................



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

You think that's funny...This one will have you snorting your coffee onto your computer screen:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Reuters
House passes bill to sue OPEC over oil prices
Tue May 20, 2008 2:27pm EDT


By Tom Doggett

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved legislation on Tuesday allowing the Justice Department to sue OPEC members for limiting oil supplies and working together to set crude prices, but the White House threatened to veto the measure.

The bill would subject OPEC oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela, to the same antitrust laws that U.S. companies must follow.

The measure passed in a 324-84 vote, a big enough margin to override a presidential veto.

The legislation also creates a Justice Department task force to aggressively investigate gasoline price gouging and energy market manipulation.

"This bill guarantees that oil prices will reflect supply and demand economic rules, instead of wildly speculative and perhaps illegal activities," said Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen of Wisconsin, who sponsored the legislation.

The lawmaker said Americans "are at the mercy" of OPEC for how much they pay for gasoline, which this week hit a record average of $3.79 a gallon.

The White House opposes the bill, saying that targeting OPEC investment in the United States as a source for damage awards "would likely spur retaliatory action against American interests in those countries and lead to a reduction in oil available to U.S. refiners."

The administration said less oil going to refineries would limit available gasoline supplies and raise fuel prices. House passes bill to sue OPEC over oil prices

Foreign investment in U.S. oil infrastructure has declined in the last decade. But the state-owned oil companies of several OPEC nations are owners of U.S. refineries, and those investments could be affected if the legislation becomes law, said Arlington, Virginia-based FBR Capital Markets Corp.

The bill also requires the Government Accountability Office to carryout a study on the effects of prior oil company mergers on energy prices.

The Senate would still have to approve the House measure.

The Senate previously approved similar legislation as part of a broad energy bill. However, the OPEC-suing provision was removed after White House opposition in order to get the underlying energy legislation signed into law.

(Editing by Christian Wiessner)


http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMo...T00953020080520

I honestly thought is was out of The Onion when I read it.



Posted by: oldguy---------------------

On the morning news just a minute ago they were predicting a higher then average hurricane season possibly driving gas to $5.50 - $6 a gallon by mid summer



Posted by: BSWIFT---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by oldguy
On the morning news just a minute ago they were predicting a higher then average hurricane season possibly driving gas to $5.50 - $6 a gallon by mid summer

Again, the profiteering of the futures market is pushing crude prices up more. I really hope the bottom falls out of these speculators butts. If the other 48 states override Florida and California, possibly, maybe, domestic drilling and production will return.



Posted by: 2strokerfun---------------------

Seems to me that it used to be illegal to trade oil futures in the U.S. I remember in about 1981 a local rich guy whom the local minor league field was named after was sent to federal prison for trading futures (so, of course, they ignored the millions he donated and renamed the field after he was convicted). So, doing some quick research, it appears crude futures trading started on the NY mercantile in 1983. Wonder how it would affect oil prices if they stopped trading futures again.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2strokerfun
Seems to me that it used to be illegal to trade oil futures in the U.S. I remember in about 1981 a local rich guy whom the local minor league field was named after was sent to federal prison for trading futures (so, of course, they ignored the millions he donated and renamed the field after he was convicted). So, doing some quick research, it appears crude futures trading started on the NY mercantile in 1983. Wonder how it would affect oil prices if they stopped trading futures again.



Bing Bing Bing. I believe we have a winner.

I also agree wholeheartedly with Rob that the devaluation of the dollar is a huge culprit. (So how many of you guys who have been bashing Prius drivers as estrogen charged eco-Nazis have your trucks parked for the summer?? lol. Times are achanging.)

The next post has a really interesting paragraph in it about unconsidered supply sources feeding China (and other countries) demand, which will curb the rise. It is an intriguing notion, but not one I'm inclined to believe will have a huge impact here, largely because of the value of the dollar and hysteria on the news/in NY.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NY Times The Cassandra of Oil Prices Louise Story
The analysts who predict lower prices say there are supplies of oil that the bullish analysts are missing. “This year will be a year in which supply will be put into the market by stealth by OPEC and by countries we call black-hole countries,” said Edward L. Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers. China is one example, he said.




Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

A friend of mine calls this the Chicken Little approach to oil price discussions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewYork Times
The Cassandra of Oil Prices

The New York Times

By LOUISE STORY
Published: May 21, 2008

Arjun N. Murti remembers the pain of the oil shocks of the 1970s. But he is bracing for something far worse now: He foresees a “super spike” * a price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel.

Arjun Murti at Goldman Sachs studied the 1970s’ oil spikes. One had drivers lined up at a gas station in San Jose, Calif., in 1974.

Henny Ray Abrams/Associated Press

The oil options pit at the New York Mercantile Exchange; oil prices touched $129.60 Tuesday.

Mr. Murti, who has a bit of a green streak, is not bothered much by the prospect of even higher oil prices, figuring it might finally prompt America to become more energy efficient.

An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas at $4 a gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives.

Mr. Murti, 39, argues that the world’s seemingly unquenchable thirst for oil means prices will keep rising from here and stay above $100 into 2011. Others disagree, arguing that prices could abruptly tumble if speculators in the market rush for the exits. But the grim calculus of Mr. Murti’s prediction, issued in March and reconfirmed two weeks ago, is enough to give anyone pause: in an America of $200 oil, gasoline could cost more than $6 a gallon.

That would be fine with Mr. Murti, who owns not one but two hybrid cars. “I’m actually fairly anti-oil,” says Mr. Murti, who grew up in New Jersey. “One of the biggest challenges our country faces is our addiction to oil.”

Mr. Murti is hardly alone in predicting higher oil prices. Boone Pickens, the oilman turned corporate raider, said Tuesday that crude would hit $150 this year. But many analysts are no longer so sure where oil is going, at least in the short term. Some say prices will fall as low as $70 a barrel by year-end, according to Thomson Financial.

Experts disagree over the supply of oil, the demand for it and whether recent speculation in the commodities markets has artificially raised prices. As an energy analyst at Citigroup, Tim Evans, reportedly put it, trading commodities these days is like “sticking your hand in a blender.”

Whatever the case, oil analysts like Mr. Murti have suddenly taken on the aura that enveloped technology analysts in the 1990s.

“It’s become a very fashionable area to write about,” said Kevin Norrish, a commodity analyst at Barclays Capital, which began predicting high oil prices around the same time as Goldman. “And to try to get attention from people, people are coming out with all sorts of numbers.”

This was not always the case. In the 1990s, oil research was a sleepy area at banks. Many analysts assumed oil prices would hover near $15 to $20 a barrel forever. If prices rose much above those levels, they figured, consumers would start conserving, suppliers would raise production, or both, causing prices to decline.

But around the turn of the century, oil company after oil company started missing predicted production. Mr. Murti, who covers oil companies like ConocoPhillips and Valero Energy, decided to study the oil spikes of the 1970s.

Since starting his career at Petrie Parkman & Company, a Denver-based investment firm acquired by Merrill Lynch in 2006, he had been conservative in his calls on oil. But by 2004, he concluded the world was headed for a long supply shock that would push prices through the roof. That summer, as oil traded for about $40 a barrel, Mr. Murti coined what has become his signature phrase: super spike.

The following March, he drew attention by predicting prices would soar to $105, sending shock waves through the market. Angry investors questioned whether Goldman’s own oil traders benefited from the prediction. At Goldman’s annual meeting, Henry M. Paulson Jr., then the bank’s chief executive and now Treasury secretary, found himself defending Mr. Murti.

“Our traders were as surprised as everyone else was,” Mr. Paulson reportedly said. “Our research department is totally independent. Our trading departments have no say about this.”

Over time, Mr. Murti was proved right again. Oil crossed $100 in February. Mr. Murti’s forecasts now feed into many of Goldman’s economic and corporate forecasts, affecting research of companies like Ford and Procter & Gamble. His research is distributed widely among investors.

“Even if you disagree with their views, the problem is that Goldman does carry so much credibility,” said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president for global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA. “There are a lot of traders who are going to buy based on their reports.”

His sudden fame unsettles Mr. Murti. He rarely grants interviews, citing concerns about privacy, and he declined to be photographed for this article. He is not the bank’s only gas prognosticator: Jeffrey R. Currie predicts oil prices out of London.

Mr. Murti, for his part, discounts suggestions that his reports affect market prices. “Whenever an analyst upgrades a stock or downgrades a stock, sometimes you get a reaction that day, but beyond a day, fundamentals win out,” he said.

Mr. Murti falls into the camp of oil analysts who believe that supply is likely to remain tight because of geopolitical factors. These analysts predict higher prices because production is declining in non- OPEC countries like Britain, Norway and Mexico.

The analysts who predict lower prices say there are supplies of oil that the bullish analysts are missing. “This year will be a year in which supply will be put into the market by stealth by OPEC and by countries we call black-hole countries,” said Edward L. Morse, chief energy economist at Lehman Brothers. China is one example, he said.

But while oil and gas prices have been rising for a while now, Americans have only just begun to reduce gasoline consumption, so their efforts to conserve have not dragged down oil prices.

“The fact that the U.S. gasoline demand can be down and that the U.S. gasoline consumer is no longer driving world oil prices is a monumental event,” Mr. Murti says. He spends most of his time talking to money managers and analysts, many of whom keep asking him if oil prices will stay high if speculators abandon the market, and says he applauds investors for driving up oil prices, since that will spur investment in alternative sources of energy.

High prices, he says, “send a message to consumers that you should try your best to buy fuel-efficient cars or otherwise conserve on energy.” Washington should create tax incentives to encourage people to buy hybrid cars and develop more nuclear energy, he said.

Of course, if lawmakers heed his advice, oil analysts like him might one day be a thing of the past. That’s fine with Mr. Murti.

“The greatest thing in the world would be if in 15 years we no longer needed oil analysts,” he says.




Posted by: Filthy_McNasty---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by fatcat216
You think that's funny...This one will have you snorting your coffee onto your computer screen:



http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMo...T00953020080520

I honestly thought is was out of The Onion when I read it.
So, if I understand the article right, Congress has the idea that, if they pass a law that says OPEC must abide by U.S. laws, then by God those OPEC scoundrels wouldn't dare disobey our laws and will just fall submissively in line. Sound about right?

The last time I checked the Middle East was definitely not on U.S. soil, so my guess would be the members of OPEC and the leaders of their countries will laugh all the way to the bank as they thumb their noses at our Congress and tell them where to stick their new law...



Posted by: rickyd---------------------

Has the price per barrel gone up because out dollar is not worth as much?



Posted by: XRpredator---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickyd
Has the price per barrel gone up because out dollar is not worth as much?

yes



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Here's another blurb on commodities, pension funds, and the Senate Hearings.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily...gn_id=rss_daily


It does a nice job of explaining the surge in index speculators and the lack of regulation going on by the CFTC. I'm sure I'm not summarizing this very articulately but it's a long article that may not tweak everyone's interest.

In short, pension funds get exempted from reporting requirements which normally limit investment position. Through swap agreements with the investment banks there has been a 20 fold rise in investments in the last five years- thus driving up prices- equal in demand increase we've seen by China......Those investors are Goldman Sachs type investment banks. You know...guys like Bear Stearns that we just bailed out with your ever devaluing dollar? Of course, the ever devaluing dollar spurs more investment in long funds, etc. A round robin effect which diminishes the effect of supply and demand on price. (But of course, demand is up, too.) In short, you get to pay more for gas, and anything else that comes in from overseas. Assuming you don't lose your job in the process of recession and inflation. Neato.

How come Jaybird hasn't stopped in on this thread to share his profound knowledge of this stuff. I thought he was a wizened old bird when it came to oil futures? Come on Jaybird...it is safe to come out and play on this one. Your time has come. It's in the news and topical. Or was that someone else? I'm always confusing you guys.



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Might I suggest a book called "Pirates of Manhattan" for some very interesting reading.



Posted by: Jaybird---------------------

We can wax philosophical forever and two days on this issue, and nothing will change until we figure out what the real culprit of inflating prices are. And by golly it seems to me that if we look close...it always turns out that supply and demand hold the purse strings.

I made my thoughts known earlier in this thread concerning what is effecting the supply side of this equation. And since it is clear that the demand side is rising, the only way to stabilize pricing, is to bring the supply side up.
Unless of course there are outside forces working on this issue, say for example futures traders and investment bankers who get free rides for bad deals. And let's not forget big gov that thinks it can manage an economic system using it's controls....

When you meddle with eco101, you get what you get.
Proven time, and time, and time again.

Quote:
If the other 48 states override Florida and California, possibly, maybe, domestic drilling and production will return.

Other 48?
See...now I am confused. I thought one of the leading Pres candidates said there are 57 or is it 58 states?...

Quote:
i want the black dude to win.

That is exactly what we would have too.
That and another pocket full of sharp. Way sharp.
But, he is in good company. A whole tote full of sharp to choose from this go around.
It's &%#*in' sad folks. ('scuse my Francaise, bitte)



Posted by: Tony Eeds---------------------

Jaybird is correct about supply and demand.

Couple that on the fact that America has been shoving inflation down the throats of the rest of the world via devaluation of the dollar and you create a perfect storm when you toss in market uncertainty (Iraq), increased consumption of countries other than the traditional oil consumers (China and India).

Now for an aside ...

Politics and Sports are pablum for the masses to distract us and keep our eye off the ball.

We are sitting on the sideline witnessing a battle royal for control of earth's economic health. Big Government and Big Business are the players.

Choose sides my friends and sit back and watch ...

Both sides are in it for the long haul

Big government can change the rules all it want's but big business has the cash to play the game to the hilt. Only time will tell who wins.

One thing for certain ...

Big Government = Socialism = less for all ... Obama said so

Big Business = Capitalism (their sort) = messy but unparalleled opportunity for those that know where to look for opportunity.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patman
Might I suggest a book called "Pirates of Manhattan" for some very interesting reading.


Thanks Patman. It actually wasn't the book I was thinking of when I looked it up just now. Much more of a personal adviser read? It seems I've been knee deep in mechanical and the like reading. I'll take a peek at it.

[Funny- you can buy it on Amazon used for twice what it sells for new. Is this some sort of book that pays dividends sitting on your shelf?? ]



Posted by: Patman---------------------

It's an eye opener no matter what prospective you look at it from.

The reality is that oil is only a very small part of the bigger picture and as has pointed out most are distracted by sports and politics with almost the rest taken with the oil/fuel price issue.



Posted by: Brandon1---------------------

The only thing I do not like about drilling around Fl is the weather tearing the drill rigs apart. And being a local scuba diver (Brooksville West Coast) it would make the west coast diving worse. As is it now it is about a mile a foot heading out and maybe 100 vis on a good day. I also do not mind the farming way of life beings I also team rope and have horses. But if it gets to pricey not to be able to ride my bikes that will be hell



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Not in my backyard and let other people change seems to be part of what has kept us in the pickle we're in.



Posted by: BSWIFT---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patman
Not in my backyard and let other people change seems to be part of what has kept us in the pickle we're in.

If I had the mineral rights on my place, I'd sink a well. 1-2 barrels a day would make it worth looking at.



Posted by: stumanarama---------------------

Could the rise in crude oil over the years also be related to the fact that it is a non replinishable resource? perhaps instead of trying to figure out ways to get more out of the earth faster we should take it as a cue to start investing heavily in more renewable resources.



Posted by: kiwijohn---------------------

I heard part of a news broadcast about oil prices that was very upsetting! Especially since ours has gone up 10 cents in one day!

Did you know the oil price is not set by physical costs or supply and demand but by the stockmarket? they speculate on the price which raises / lowers the price depending on how the market has reacted / is reacting to current speculations - not related to actual costs in any way.... I'll try and find the weblink from the interview - amazing and more than a little depressing



Posted by: just-startin---------------------

What annoys me is that high speculative spot prices seem to manifest themselves at the pump almost instantly ( despite the fact that there are stores in-country, purchased at older, cheaper prices ) but production price drops seem to lag forever or not even materialise.

I must admit that I look around at how much our lifestyle is currently dependant on cheap, abundant, energy. I harbour a certain nagging feeling of panic at the prospect of what a crazy shift in energy prices will bring.

At the same time, China and India are only just starting to come online and producing US $2500 brand new cars like the Tata Nano for their massive populaces http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tata_nano



Posted by: kiwijohn---------------------

Great points - here's FOX networks blurb.....
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,166038,00.html
And this one reckons 60% of the oil price is due to specualtion only....tsk tsk.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index....ext=va&aid=8878

But can we do anything? Seems obvious to me that there are no dirt bike riders at the NY or Tokyo exchange!



Posted by: kiwijohn---------------------

[QUOTE=just-startin]What annoys me is that high speculative spot prices seem to manifest themselves at the pump almost instantly ( despite the fact that there are stores in-country, purchased at older, cheaper prices ) but production price drops seem to lag forever or not even materialise.



One of my friends did a stint at Mobil Oil here in NZ as a crude oil buyer, and the rule then (10yrs ago) was to stockpile at the lowest price they could then set the price on the new stock when that came into the market, but competition kept the oil companies reasonably even... but now, they can bump the price up whenever they like, and it's more like a challenge to see who can go the highest the earliest



Posted by: ignition retard---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by just-startin
I must admit that I look around at how much our lifestyle is currently dependant on cheap, abundant, energy. I harbour a certain nagging feeling of panic at the prospect of what a crazy shift in energy prices will bring.


It's not an energy problem, its a liquid fuel problem, but you're right, if the prices of product shipping and production go up due to expensive petroleum then the standard of living goes down.



Posted by: Solid State---------------------

Buy oil futures = more personal money to buy gas = net lower price. Stop complaining and start investing. Or do you want to pass laws and punish the people who know how to make money better than you? If your so convinced that oil is going up - up -up, then why not buy in and take the profit and use the proceeds to buy down your own increased gas costs?



Posted by: just-startin---------------------

Ha ha, that's an excellent idea

Just out of interest, is this how we get massive ramping which will ultimately burst leaving us in yet another sticky situation ?



Posted by: Solid State---------------------

Of course. That is, if you don't get out in time.

Like any other investment it takes guts, luck, knowledge and someone on the inside leaking you information. Everyone seems to be positive that the astronomical rising price of a barrel of oil is a sure bet. I'm just wondering why the same people don't actually take that bet if they're so positive? Seems like easy money.



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

Not my idea, but I like it: Trade 1 barrel of oil for 1 barrel of grain.



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

Or is it not a big conspiracy?... but supply and demand. India and China's economys are booming like never before. They've never been huge oil consumers and now they're going like gangbusters, at an incredible rate (China is a really, really big country). Many of our American car dealers are shipping our gas hogs we're trading in over there because they're buying them up. If the refineries are paying employees double and tripple overtime to work 24/7, gas is going to be high.



Posted by: motometal---------------------

Its really sad to see the same folks that bitch and cry about gas prices, love to shop at WalMart and save money buy purchasing Chinese products. So functionally, we send all of our money over to China, then they decide they want cars too...and why not! So that drives up the price of fuel and lowers our standard of living.

Most people, by nature, are very selfish and short sighted. They don't consider how they are helping put uncle Jim or aunt Sarah out of work because their manufacturing jobs are going overseas, where most of the products are made that we purchase.

But hey, look what bargains we found!



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

Yup. And right here in the U.S. too. Home Depot, Lowes....... wish there were still "mom & pop" hardware stores. Needed new handles for a wheelbarrow, can't find 'em! Gotta buy a whole new one. I think I'll make some and possibly spend more... just to "stick it to the man." issed: .......



Posted by: Moose---------------------

You guys have two choices.

You can stop complaining.

Or you can come live in Canada and pay nearly 6 dollars a gallon. Or, you can live in Europe and pay anywhere around 11 dollars a gallon. Feel better?



Posted by: BSWIFT---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose
You guys have two choices.

You can stop complaining.

Or you can come live in Canada and pay nearly 6 dollars a gallon. Or, you can live in Europe and pay anywhere around 11 dollars a gallon. Feel better?

We still pay for our own medical care. Your extra taxes pay for socialized medicine, amoung other things.
Nice places to visit but I'll live right here in the buckle of the bible belt.



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

No I do not feel better? While others are worse than us, it figures! There are places still paying under a dollar a gallon! Places we call our friends? Places in our own hemisphere! A good deal of these issues we control, and are screwing ourselves!! (SEEMINGLY!) Oh boy, lets lift sanctions on N.Korea,GREAT! How about a smoking deal on crude from Iraq, or taking maybe an hour and erase Venezuela? I am sure I will NEVER see .25 cents a gallon gas again. That they could open up Alaska and offshore drilling, and all it would do is fuel the whiners and A.Gore! I am sure by the time Honda gets done giving the elite in California a cheap shot at testing their version of the hydrogen cars, that it will be every bit as expensive as a gas car to operate, probably MORE! Now let me go to the grocery store and give at least 75% more than I was paying 6 months ago!! The one pertinent factor that DOES honestly surprise me is, that the price of new bikes is not through the roof also?



Posted by: Moose---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by BSWIFT
We still pay for our own medical care. Your extra taxes pay for socialized medicine, amoung other things.
Nice places to visit but I'll live right here in the buckle of the bible belt.


Understood. Now take the first option.



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose
You guys have two choices.


Actually, there are more than two, but I'll play your game on this one.
"Stop complaining"... which actually means, give up, give in, till someone else wins. Or, it just means you don't care and don't want to hear it.
Or, stay here and... look a little at my own pocketbook, then focus on it even MORE closely, because the choices and difference I can make will greatly affect a safe, bright, affordable and therefore optimistic future for our children and theirs, and theirs....
It's called freedom. We choose to NOT give up, thank you.

BTW... You guys are bad-ass at hockey.



Posted by: Moose---------------------

Yeah, because complaining on an internet forum is going to help lower the gas prices...



Posted by: ignition retard---------------------

Maybe you should stop complaining about the complaining. What am I complaining about?



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Maybe..... just maybe we need to improvise, adapt, overcome the situation at hand. That could mean many things not just one solution but sitting around crying about it will fix nothing. I just finished a 3,500 mile trip in a F150 Supercrew 4x4 with 5.4 and 3.73 gears and it wasn't cheap but I kept my foot out of it and used the cruise as much as possible and it made a difference. I already use synthetic lubricants and am a maintenance nut including checking / adjusting tire pressure each morning of the trip. Since I drive about 50 miles minimum each day I'm looking to pick up a used small fuel efficient car that is still fun and will park my truck more. Basically look at things that help reduce my need for fuel on a personal basis and then also look at the bigger picture as far as voting and supporting other more national options.

Another interesting thing I noticed on my trip which covered TX, AR, TN, KY, OH, WV, MD, VA, NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA is that I saw no E85 or biodiesel pumps and unleaded was only between $3.85 and $4.19 none of these wild numbers close to $5 I have heard thrown about.



Posted by: Moose---------------------

In Canada, it is well over $5 a gallon. That's why I "threw" it about.



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

Geez, gas is high in Canada. What did you guys do wrong?



Posted by: Patman---------------------

It's the beer, they figure they are all drunk so they won't notice the extra Looney.



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

You mean that high powered liquid fear beer labatts? It all tastes like dish water!



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Kokanee, Raven Cream Ale.... not the stuff they send down to us.



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

Could have something to do with why I do not remember everything the last time I was there? Halfway through Detroit, what happened? Something about the cops not carrying guns was funny, they did not think so!



Posted by: OnAnySunday---------------------

Someone on the xr650r-yahoo group had a link to this:

http://video.google.com/videosearch...is&sitesearch=#

I wonder if any of what he says is true?
Probably being covered over by the Eco-Nazi's & our lovely members of congress?



Posted by: Patman---------------------

I'll venture that there is a lot of truth there. Also notice the date. Know what gas was going for then? About $2.50 a gallon.

Notice he has also gone back to being a missionary. Might be for a longer life or maybe he just gave up, who really knows.



Posted by: robwbright---------------------

I haven't been involved in this thread recently as I could spend hours debating. . .

However. . . please note from the following graph of commodity prices for the last 90 years how much faster the price of commodities went up immediately AFTER NIXON TOOK US OFF THE GOLD STANDARD in the early 70s.

Obviously, there are other factors involved in prices and the value of money. However, if you keep the dollar linked to gold, it tracks very closely with the price of oil - regardless of other factors.

As I recall, the Constitution specifically requires that money be coined in gold and silver - ONLY.

"No state shall . . . make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts . . ."



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by robwbright
"No state shall . . . make anything but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debts . . ."
I think they view that as a suggestion these days..... like most everything else listed in that document.



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

I'm looking for investors for my next product line.

It's a hi-flow siphon hose with a silent hand crank. Come with a universal key for locking gas caps and NVG.



Posted by: Solid State---------------------

robwbright,

Are you sure it's not linked to the dyno run of a two-stroke 250?



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

So... common sense flys out the window again.
Lawyers... I smell an "agenda" to puff ones self esteem up. (for others, and if we buy it... themselves.)
Graphs... "If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance...



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

Here's some common sense for you.

Big oil has two choices. They can either:

A. Do nothing and continue to make more profit than any industry in the history of mankind (while blaming the Democrats, liberals, hippies, ecoterrorists, and enviro-nazis for those record profits).

B. Spend billions of dollars on drilling and new refineries so they can sell their products for less.

Let's talk about common sense.



Posted by: Patman---------------------

How do ya' figure that JP?
The "cost" of gasoline roughly breaks down like this.
-58 percent of the cost is for crude oil (the product itself, with a price determined by its market demand)
-15 percent goes to state and federal taxes
-17 percent to oil companies and refineries
-10 percent to distributors and marketers

Do the big oil companies make huge profits? Sure but what drives the cost of the base product up? Who doesn't want us tapping in to some the largest oil fields ever found? It looks like 17% of the buck stops at the big oil companies and 58% is someplace else. Shouldn't the 58% get 58% of the blame? The oil companies are not setting the price of the base product, but I figured everyone knew that.



Posted by: XRpredator---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusPleaser
Here's some common sense for you.

Big oil has two choices. They can either:

A. Do nothing and continue to make more profit than any industry in the history of mankind (while blaming the Democrats, liberals, hippies, ecoterrorists, and enviro-nazis for those record profits).

B. Spend billions of dollars on drilling and new refineries so they can sell their products for less.

Let's talk about common sense.

I think they'd spend billions of dollars on drilling and new refineries if the Democrats, liberals, hippies, ecoterrorists, and enviro-nazis (and anyone else for that matter) would take a step back and let some of it happen. If the mandates and regulations weren't so prohibitive, I would imagine the oil companies would be building refineries and drilling wells like crazy, because those billions would translate to trillions at some point, maybe even translate to brazilians!

I love you JP

Love,

your pal

pred



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patman
How do ya' figure that JP?
The "cost" of gasoline roughly breaks down like this.
-58 percent of the cost is for crude oil (the product itself, with a price determined by its market demand)
-15 percent goes to state and federal taxes
-17 percent to oil companies and refineries
-10 percent to distributors and marketers

Do the big oil companies make huge profits? Sure but what drives the cost of the base product up? Who doesn't want us tapping in to some the largest oil fields ever found? It looks like 17% of the buck stops at the big oil companies and 58% is someplace else. Shouldn't the 58% get 58% of the blame? The oil companies are not setting the price of the base product, but I figured everyone knew that.


Oil companies break profit records every quarter.



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by XRpredator
I think they'd spend billions of dollars on drilling and new refineries if the Democrats, liberals, hippies, ecoterrorists, and enviro-nazis (and anyone else for that matter) would take a step back and let some of it happen. If the mandates and regulations weren't so prohibitive, I would imagine the oil companies would be building refineries and drilling wells like crazy, because those billions would translate to trillions at some point, maybe even translate to brazilians!

I love you JP

Love,

your pal

pred


Why would they try to fix what isn't broken? What vested interest do they have? They're breaking profit records every quarter. Why screw it up by spending money on drilling and refineries (especially when people are so willing to blame those profits on others)?

*Smooches*



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Wow the buck stops with the big oil companies? What other short sighted tidbits are out there awaiting to be bestowed upon us? LOTS of people and companies make profits so we need to blame them for the "high" cost of those products as well? I'm sure none of this has anything to do with global supply and demand, speculation on oil prices nor government policy

How can you possibly not see that if a little profit is good a lot more is better and that the oil companies would gladly spend a little of their massive profits for an even larger return? You are suggesting they are happy with what they are getting? If you knew you could quadruple your money on something by spending 15% more than you currently do on that same something with virtually no risk would you do it or are are you just happy as can be with what you currently have? Unless you have turned in to a monk there is only one answer.



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

OPEC did it? They do not figure like we figure. The oil companies are just along for the ride, and they keep paying their fare. When do we get our windfall from opec? They control the volume of production. And if that chart is accurate, then countries paying more for crude than we are, are running in a deeper debt? And if everywhere is in the fiscal red, what happens when somebody calls in for all their money?



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

That's the cool thing about being an American - you're free to buy whatever BS story you choose.

I choose to believe that big oil is perfectly happy to sit back and rake in the cash while blaming everyone under the sun for their enormous profits.

It's the capitalist thing to do.

Not that I have a problem with a company making enormous profits or anything - just don't blow smoke up my ass about it.

I wouldn't say a word if they would man up and admit that they're screwing us because they know nobody will stop them.



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

Just got a warning from our local natural gas and electric supplier. 58% increase expected this coming winter, due to escalated fuel oil prices. Now I understand why milk and bread are 4 bucks a piece, and why beef is going to go through the roof, but what in the hell does crude prices have to do with natural gas and electric? They have vehicles that run on natural gas, they are not alone getting screwed by crude prices. Well thats it, I will tell my boss my wages will increase 58 percent, retro effective 3-1-08. Soon to be gainfully unemployed, Bob



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

It is instinct (human nature) to assume everyone else thinks like we do, it's the very being of our individual belief system. If I'm convinced everyone's sneaky, manipulative, dishonest, selfish, all about "my own pocketbook", out to take advantage of me, and ultimately out to "rip me off"... what does that say about me?



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

Albeit there are plenty of people like that, like my boss and plenty of small businesses that do not have the leverage to just go jacking up the prices. To me its just the price of poker. To me its people, to them its figures. I do not have the seemingly pleasure, of effecting the world market at the punch of a key. I am fine with, they will get theirs sooner or later.



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusPleaser
That's the cool thing about being an American - you're free to buy whatever BS story you choose.
.
Now that IS true. Do you happen to subscribe that all this oil that is being extracted will also cause the plates of the eart to rub together like a giant 2 stroke piston without premix?

Let me guess Elvis is still alive but abducted by little green men.



Posted by: XRpredator---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patman
Let me guess Elvis is still alive but abducted by little green men.

He wasn't abducted, he just went to his home planet.



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patman
Now that IS true. Do you happen to subscribe that all this oil that is being extracted will also cause the plates of the eart to rub together like a giant 2 stroke piston without premix?




I was wondering what all the squeaking was about.



Posted by: BSWIFT---------------------

I don't know the exact amount of gallons of fuel sold in the US every day but, let's say that the oil companies clear $.01 of every gallon as profit. The resulting figure is huge (economy of scale). If you allow them to make $.01 thru every process from crude extraction, transportation, storage, refining, and retail delivery, you can see that their profits are HUGE. That is how an economy of scale works.
As a small business owner, I would flat be broke if I only made $.01 profit per given widget I produce. Now if you or anyone else are working for a private company and you only produce $.01 profit per widget, you'd be unemployed pretty quickly and you are about to see this happen in the 3 major US automakers.
US history provides many examples of "carpet bagging" and speculation. Each envolves greedy people or companies taking advantage of those in dire need. This is in effect, capitalism at its extreme. To me, those who drive up the price of such a vital comodity are UN-patriotic and they threaten our nations economic security, regardless of political affiliation. With all speculation there comes risks. The largest risk in this type of uncontrolled speculation is economic collapse and no president will have the power to stop it. Our do-nothing Congress will argue, study, and argue more before taxing us more and cause a second Historic Wall Street crash before any real solution is to be found, all the while lining their pockets with stock gains.
Continue to blaim the oil companies and the president if you must but they are only the whipping post of the ignorant and politically motivated. The Constitution spells out the powers of the three branches of government and I don't see anywhere that the President controls the price of fuel. The buck stops in congress. Congress is controlled by corperate special interests and the national party leaders that put their own agenda's ahead of the natural economic supply and demand formula.
Learn to grow your own food, fish, and hunt because the trips to the grocery store wll soon be the largest cut of your budget.



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

Learn to grow your own food, fish, and hunt because the trips to the grocery store wll soon be the largest cut of your budget. What 5 months ago was 150 a week to the grocery store is now 250! The corn for gas was a GREAT idea, surely that will go down in history of big blunders. Damn near 4 bucks for milk and bread, a piece. Was 3 bucks for both. Wonder how long a guy would last consuming tainted fish and game? Is it 1 source driving all the rest up? Thankfully not everything is going dollar crazy, or is it just gaining momentum? And yes, snivil'in is all that will get done till it is too late. Now, Steven Segal and Kieffer Sutherland could straighten this mess out.



Posted by: Solid State---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patman
Now that IS true. Do you happen to subscribe that all this oil that is being extracted will also cause the plates of the eart to rub together like a giant 2 stroke piston without premix?


Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusPleaser
I was wondering what all the squeaking was about.


It's like bees - stinging me in my head - all over the world.



Posted by: Senior KX Rider---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by BSWIFT
I don't know the exact amount of gallons of fuel sold in the US every day but, let's say that the oil companies clear $.01 of every gallon as profit. The resulting figure is huge (economy of scale). If you allow them to make $.01 thru every process from crude extraction, transportation, storage, refining, and retail delivery, you can see that their profits are HUGE. That is how an economy of scale works.
As a small business owner, I would flat be broke if I only made $.01 profit per given widget I produce. Now if you or anyone else are working for a private company and you only produce $.01 profit per widget, you'd be unemployed pretty quickly and you are about to see this happen in the 3 major US automakers.
US history provides many examples of "carpet bagging" and speculation. Each envolves greedy people or companies taking advantage of those in dire need. This is in effect, capitalism at its extreme. To me, those who drive up the price of such a vital comodity are UN-patriotic and they threaten our nations economic security, regardless of political affiliation. With all speculation there comes risks. The largest risk in this type of uncontrolled speculation is economic collapse and no president will have the power to stop it. Our do-nothing Congress will argue, study, and argue more before taxing us more and cause a second Historic Wall Street crash before any real solution is to be found, all the while lining their pockets with stock gains.
Continue to blaim the oil companies and the president if you must but they are only the whipping post of the ignorant and politically motivated. The Constitution spells out the powers of the three branches of government and I don't see anywhere that the President controls the price of fuel. The buck stops in congress. Congress is controlled by corperate special interests and the national party leaders that put their own agenda's ahead of the natural economic supply and demand formula.
Learn to grow your own food, fish, and hunt because the trips to the grocery store wll soon be the largest cut of your budget.




You are absolutely right Brian. These companys operate on a profit margin of somewhere between 9 and 11 percent. That is borderline of being shameful in the business world. When we sold our company it operated at a 31 percent profit margin. The only ones ripping off the American people are the liberals in Washington DC

Maybe we should drill more oil and refine it in our own country.

Arctic May Hold 90 Billion Barrels of Oil, U.S. Says (Update2)
Arctic May Hold 90 Billion Barrels of Oil, U.S. Says (Update2)

By Joe Carroll

July 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Arctic may hold 90 billion barrels of oil, more than all the known reserves of Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Mexico combined, and enough to supply U.S. demand for 12 years, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

One-third of the undiscovered oil is in Alaskan territory, the agency found in a study released today. By contrast, a geologic formation beneath the North Pole claimed by Russian scientists last year probably holds just 1.2 percent of the Arctic's crude, the U.S. report showed.

Energy producers such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Chevron Corp. have accelerated exploration of the northernmost regions for untapped reserves amid record prices and receding access to deposits in more hospitable climates. Russia's move to scrap a United Nations convention and carve out an exclusive Arctic zone sparked protests from Canada, the U.S., Norway and Denmark.

``Most of the Arctic, especially offshore, is essentially unexplored with respect to petroleum,'' Donald Gautier, the project chief for the assessment, said in the report. ``The extensive Arctic continental shelves may constitute the geographically largest unexplored prospective area for petroleum remaining on Earth.''

Russia dispatched a nuclear-powered icebreaker to the Arctic Ocean last year to map a subsea link between Siberia and the North Pole as part of a bid to refute a UN convention limiting resource claims beyond 200 miles (321 kilometers) offshore. Canada said earlier this month that it plans to counter the Russian overture with ``a very strong claim'' to Arctic exploration rights.

No Time Estimate

The U.S. report didn't include an estimate for how long it will take to bring the reserves to markets. Offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico and West Africa can take a decade or longer to begin pumping oil.

The geologists studied maps of subterranean rock formations across the 8.2 million square miles above the Arctic Circle to find areas with characteristics similar to oil and gas finds in other parts of the world.

The study also took into account the age, depth and shape of rock formations in judging whether they are likely to contain oil, Gautier said today during a conference call with reporters. Seismic data doesn't yet exist for most of the Arctic, he said.

``Petroleum doesn't just occur anywhere,'' Gautier said. ``It requires a very narrow set of burial conditions.''

U.S. oil executives such as Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Rex Tillerson and Chevron Corp.'s David O'Reilly have urged lawmakers to relax prohibitions against offshore drilling, including much of Alaska. Democratic leaders in both houses of Congress rejected President George W. Bush's July 14 effort to end a 25-year moratorium on drilling in most coastal waters.

West Siberia Basin

The region above the Arctic Circle also holds an estimated 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, equal to 27 percent of the world's known gas reserves, the study showed. Almost 40 percent of the gas reserves are in Russia's West Siberia Basin.

About 84 percent of the oil and gas reserves probably lie offshore, the report showed. The region also has an estimated 44 billion barrels of natural-gas-liquids such as propane and butane, which are used by chemical producers, oil refiners and for home heating.

The study encompassed all areas north of 66.56 degrees north latitude and only included reserves that could be tapped using existing techniques. Experimental or unconventional prospects such as oil shale, gas hydrates and coal-bed methane weren't included in the assessment.

Data Contributors

Contributors of data to the study included the Geological Survey of Canada, the U.S. Interior Department's Minerals Management Service, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, the Cambridge Arctic Shelf Program and researchers in Denmark and Greenland. No Russian institutions took part in the study.

The survey only applied to undiscovered reserves. Exxon Mobil, Shell, Gazprom OAO and other energy producers have already found 400 oil and gas fields that hold the equivalent of 240 billion barrels. On a combined basis, the undiscovered reserves of oil and gas in today's report amount to 412 billion barrels.

Most of those discoveries remain capped because of a lack of pipeline or shipping facilities to haul the petroleum to markets.

Crude for September delivery fell $3.98, or 3.1 percent, to $124.44 a barrel at 2:59 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil climbed 66 percent in the past year on its way to a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11.

Global Demand

Global crude demand is expected to rise by 1 percent this year to 86.85 million barrels a day, after a 1.3 percent increase in 2007, the International Energy Agency said in a July 10 report.

Kazakhstan, site of the world's two biggest oil discoveries of the past three decades, has 39.8 billion barrels of crude reserves, according to London-based BP Plc. Nigeria's reserves amount to 36.2 billion barrels and Mexico holds 12.2 billion. Russia, the world's largest producer last year, has 79.4 billion barrels of oil reserves and 1,577 trillion cubic feet of gas.

The U.S. is expected to use about 7.39 billion barrels of crude this year, according to the Paris-based IEA.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joe Carroll in Chicago at


For to long we have caved to the eco freaks who parrot an unproven theory of man made global warming. These liberals are strangling an economy, american businesses and american familys. ITS JUST UNBELIEVABLE WHAT SUCKERS SOME PEOPLE ARE.



Posted by: XRpredator---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Senior KX Rider
Arctic May Hold 90 Billion Barrels of Oil, U.S. Says

I think this is what the left doesn't want people to understand.

I'm pulling figures out of my ass here, but you'll get my drift

say, for example, someone says that 21 million barrels of oil will only last a day. People get nervous. Now some say that we there are 430 billion barrels in wells that are working (that's not including the 90 billion Senior just mentioned). Of course, that doesn't sound like much. Then again, with the math whizzes that have made it through our education system, they just don't understand that is one THOUSAND million barrels. Okay, still doesn't sound like much. But that would mean that it would last us about 20,500 months, or almost 60 years.

Now that seems like we might reach "peak oil" in my lifetime.

of course, again, all those numbers were made up by me, with very little research, but that's what I've been gathering as far as how close we are to running out.



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

Even if they said to hell with you Gore heads. No mention of the 1/3rd of our oil coming from our dear neighbors from the north. The local refinery is dumping a small fortune into being able to refine the heavier crude here in the states. It all means more revenues will be changing hands around Washington and opec, that came from us. The oil companies are spending record amounts on research to find more oil. Goody for THEM! That was our money also. Glad to see the crap below 4 dollars a gallon, it will not last. They have found the limits they can push us. Oh, there is a bunch of crude not moving at 4.50 a gallon. Well, slow down production, again!



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Senior KX Rider
You are absolutely right Brian. These companys operate on a profit margin of somewhere between 9 and 11 percent. That is borderline of being shameful in the business world.



Is that before or after all the write-offs, multi-million dollar bonuses, and $20K nights with clients at strip clubs?

Quote:
They’ve always been at the top of the pyramid, but the past few years it’s exceeded anything in the past. Businessweek recently published article on oil executive paychecks. For the article, they commissioned a study on the compensation of the top 25 oil and gas firm’s executives. Here’s some of what they found:

“Equilar’s study found that for the 12 CEOs at the largest U.S.-based, publicly traded oil companies, median total compensation increased by more than four times the rate of that of executives in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index as a whole.”


Quote:
Last year, Exxon made the biggest profit of any company ever, $36 billion, and its retiring chairman appears to be reaping the benefits. Exxon is giving Lee Raymond one of the most generous retirement packages in history, nearly $400 million, including pension, stock options and other perks, such as a $1 million consulting deal, two years of home security, personal security, a car and driver, and use of a corporate jet for professional purposes.

Last November, when he was still chairman of Exxon, Raymond told Congress that gas prices were high because of global supply and demand.

"We're all in this together, everywhere in the world," he testified.

Raymond, however, was confronted with caustic complaints about his compensation.

"In 2004, Mr. Raymond, your bonus was over $3.6 million," Sen. Barbara Boxer said.

That was before new corporate documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that revealed Raymond's retirement deal and his $51.1 million paycheck in 2005. That's equivalent to $141,000 a day, nearly $6,000 an hour. It's almost more than five times what the CEO of Chevron made.





Posted by: Patman---------------------

So the solution to high gas prices is to tell companies how much they are allowed to compensate employees? Even if his $51M pay was reduced to $51K it woudn't fix the problem, it's not even a drop in the bucket.



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

I don't care how much they overpay their executives, and I don't care how many times they break quarterly profit records (for any industry in the history of mankind).

Capitalism is the American Way.

I would appreciate it if people would stop trying to blow smoke up my ass about it, though.



Posted by: Jaybird---------------------

I for one am not picky about what goes up your ass, I feel you have every right to stick whatever you want up there, JP.

But, when it comes to having the slightest bit of understanding of this issue, you are quite lacking, pal. All you have is your leftist rhetoric, which is way off base from what is really happening. And as the leftist has no real understanding of such issues (and it seems they don't really want to understand), they sure do not belong on the business end of them.

But I say they have every right to cry the blues about things that they simply have no real understanding of...AND they have every right to have whatever they want stuck, stuffed, pushed or blown into their stinkin ass'.

I agree with you, JP. It sucks that they just won't stop trying to blow smoke up your ass and learn how to actually get er done, like your leftist leaders have learned to do.
They have succeeded in filling yours it seems. Actually it may be too good of a job, because it seems it's coming out of your ears!
Man those leftists sure don't mess around when it comes to blowing smoke up less than informed folks ass'.
Skill like that just doesn't happen overnight.



Posted by: Patman---------------------

JP if compensation & profits are not the problem then why are you so focused on them?



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

I'm focussed on the lies and half-truths surrounding the profits, Patman.



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaybird
I for one am not picky about what goes up your ass, I feel you have every right to stick whatever you want up there, JP.

But, when it comes to having the slightest bit of understanding of this issue, you are quite lacking, pal. All you have is your leftist rhetoric, which is way off base from what is really happening. And as the leftist has no real understanding of such issues (and it seems they don't really want to understand), they sure do not belong on the business end of them.

But I say they have every right to cry the blues about things that they simply have no real understanding of...AND they have every right to have whatever they want stuck, stuffed, pushed or blown into their stinkin ass'.

I agree with you, JP. It sucks that they just won't stop trying to blow smoke up your ass and learn how to actually get er done, like your leftist leaders have learned to do.
They have succeeded in filling yours it seems. Actually it may be too good of a job, because it seems it's coming out of your ears!
Man those leftists sure don't mess around when it comes to blowing smoke up less than informed folks ass'.
Skill like that just doesn't happen overnight.





I sense a little bitterness in your post, Jay. Problems with the Home Party? Are you angry because your team is fielding a candidate that makes John Kerry look like a man of conviction?

(You might want to watch the "ass" comments. Don't want to earn yourself a "Larry Craig" or Mark Foley" label.)



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusPleaser
a candidate that makes John Kerry look like a man of conviction?






Posted by: Jaybird---------------------

Actually, if truth be told, their profits are really none of your damn business, Larry.
This is not a state run communistic society we live in. It is a capitalistic one. You do understand that concept yes?

It is hell to give liberals information like gross profits and all, as they simply do not understand the concept of the whole thing. Nor do they want to understand, because the knowledge would conflict with their leaders rants and raves.

The leftist motto: Never let a lie get in the way of sound leftist rhetoric.

BTW...apparently we are now admitting that John Kerry is actually a man of little conviction. Bout time you saw the light. But you wouldn't joke like that if her were the candidate...you would continue with your leftist rhetoric and back him up, as if.
See, phony from stem to stern. That is the leftist way of things.



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusPleaser
I'm focussed on the lies and half-truths surrounding the profits, Patman.
How would those lies and half truths be any different than those of ANY other person, company or party? There would seem to be much bigger fish to fry than oil company profits... well at least if reaching a solution was the goal.



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaybird
Actually, if truth be told, their profits are really none of your damn business, Larry.
This is not a state run communistic society we live in. It is a capitalistic one. You do understand that concept yes?

It is hell to give liberals information like gross profits and all, as they simply do not understand the concept of the whole thing. Nor do they want to understand, because the knowledge would conflict with their leaders rants and raves.

The leftist motto: Never let a lie get in the way of sound leftist rhetoric.

BTW...apparently we are now admitting that John Kerry is actually a man of little conviction. Bout time you saw the light. But you wouldn't joke like that if her were the candidate...you would continue with your leftist rhetoric and back him up, as if.
See, phony from stem to stern. That is the leftist way of things.


I'd say that any company that drills on public land is my business, Jay.

Are you sure you want to talk about lies? How about "mushroom clouds", "yellow cake", and "imminent threats"? You want to discusss those after we're finished with the oil company lies?

And I'm phony?

Do you remember when McCain called Jerry Falwell an "agent of intolerance"?

Tim Russert has caught John McCain in bold-faced lies on national television multiple times. The "Straight Talk Express" derailed and went up in a (mushroom) cloud of smoke.

http://theblacksentinel.files.wordp...ain-falwell.jpg

Video of McCain's lies:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ajm5JTf7jZs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OunCv-7qvA



Posted by: XRpredator---------------------

http://www1.istockphoto.com/file_th...ing_the_pot.jpg



Posted by: XRpredator---------------------

http://www.orgs.okstate.edu/zgss/images/SBMaxJab.jpg



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by XRpredator



I thought things were going quite well until Jaybird unleashed his usual angry uberconservative tirade. Can't beat someone down with facts? Resort to name-calling, derision, and hate.

That's a pretty old act, but I guess some people will never change - no matter how wrong they are.



Posted by: Patman---------------------

So Pred is there a smoke generator connected to the end of that pipe?



Posted by: truespode---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusPleaser
That's a pretty old act, but I guess some people will never change - no matter how wrong they are.



In all honesty, I see no difference between either of you other than your party lines.

http://i92.photobucket.com/albums/l...rumpyoldmen.jpg



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

You haven't see me dragging anyone through the dirt for having an opinion - especially an opinion that is based on fact.

Take a look back through the posts and see if you can tell exactly where things got ugly.



Posted by: truespode---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusPleaser

Take a look back through the posts and see if you can tell exactly where things got ugly.


Everything I read regarding politics from the two of you just seems like the same thing to me. From my perspective all I have to do is switch the R or D and then it comes from the other person.

The arguing you guys get into becomes noise and then just fingerpointing.

I think the both of you hurt whatever positions you are trying to defend more than you help.

I respect both of you and know that you both have a lot of passion for your viewpoint based on what each of you have read and learned over the years.

But I stand behind the grumpy old men analogy

Ivan



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

It's one of my favorite movies.



Posted by: truespode---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusPleaser
It's one of my favorite movies.


I have a hunch when I'm as old as you I'll be just as grumpy

Ivan



Posted by: Mully---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by truespode
From my perspective all I have to do is switch the R or D and then it comes from the other person.
Ivan


I have the same problem here at work. First the Research group wants to try it this way, and then the Development group wants to try it this way.......... it never ends I tell you.



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

If any of you lived close to me, you'd find dead fish in your car on a regular basis.



Posted by: XRpredator---------------------

Just not in my International Harvester Carryall, okay?



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusPleaser
If any of you lived close to me, you'd find dead fish in your car on a regular basis.
So now it's spinning on to religion? Net will be crude oil to wine right?



Posted by: Jaybird---------------------

putz!



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

I feel REALLY bad for the state senator from Alaska getting indited for putting his little hand out from the "oil companies"? That has never happened before? Aah crap! That was our money once also! I for one am glad to live in a country that does once in a while bring these bozos to court. He will be getting the fish if he opens his mouth!



Posted by: XRpredator---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaybird
putz!

HA! Jaybird got it.




Posted by: robwbright---------------------

I'd suggest that everyone read this - nice article and graphs included - about the economy in general - not just oil:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig9/quinn4.html



Posted by: IndyMX---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by robwbright
I'd suggest that everyone read this - nice article and graphs included - about the economy in general - not just oil:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig9/quinn4.html



No bias in that article at all..



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

No bias in this partial list of excuses for high oil prices, either:


(They stopped adding new ones last year.)

2007:
Fears new problems at US refineries will constrict gasoline supplies already at unusually low pre-summer levels (May 2007)
A refinery fire in Sweden
Nigerians running wild again this year
Trouble at many of the nation's refineries
US inventory stockpiles at lowest level since 1956
Extended planned refinery maintenance programs
Excuses given in the two previous years (2005-2006) mirror what we are hearing in 2007:
Concern a storm in the Caribbean will become a hurricane and hit petroleum installations in the Gulf of Mexico
Fresh worries Iran will miss a deadline to halt its nuclear program (8-18-06)
Oil fell $2 to below $75 a barrel today after Britain said it had thwarted a plot to blow up aircraft in trans-Atlantic flight. (8-10-06)
BP Plc said it's shutting the Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska (8-06-06)
Depletion at some of the world's largest fields including Mexico's Cantarell
Three Filipino oil and gas workers were abducted in southern Nigeria (8-04-06)
Fears that the Israeli-Lebanese conflict could spread to Middle East oil producers = $78.40 per barrel
Fear of Nigerian spies (7-31-06)
Explosions on Nigerian pipelines, Israel's military action, and tensions with Iran = $76 per barrel (7-13-06)
Tension over problems with North Korea cause record high prices (7-10-06)
Strong demand and worries about Iran; record high above $75 a barrel (7-05-06)
Momentum from strong demand and geopolitical worries
World oil prices advanced further as the market focused on tight supplies of US gasoline (6-22-06)
Congress has resisted accessing the billions of barrels' worth of oil and natural gas in our (U.S.) offshore continental shelf (added 6-17-06)
Mixed signals from Iran over a package of incentives offered by the West for it to give up uranium enrichment (added 6-16-06)
Militants kidnapped five Koreans at a natural gas plant operated by Royal Dutch Shell in Nigeria
Iran's supreme leader threatened to disrupt global supplies if the West punishes Tehran over its nuclear program
A refinery fire cut production at a Valero Energy Corp plant on June 1, 2006
An attack on a Nigerian oil rig which included kidnappings
Crude futures rose amid expectations of a spike in motor fuel demand during the summer driving season, and as forecasters warn of hurricane activity in the coming months. A barrel of light crude jumped $1.21 to $72.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange on 30 May 2006.
President Bush's Blunders Add $15 to the price of each barrel of oil
Concern of new predictions of new hurricanes for 2006
A letter from Iran's president to President Bush failed to move the countries closer to an agreement
Rising resource nationalism in South America have added to oil-market worries
An expected decline in gasoline stocks (note that this excuse was reversed in 2 days as stocks increased)
Bullish buying by investors
A refinery outage in Italy
Supply disruptions in Africa
Tight petroleum supplies amid soaring demand could drive crude oil prices above $100 a barrel by this winter (2006-2007), energy experts warned yesterday.
Speculators and profit takers bid up the market
Bush stops filling oil reserves while experts say refining is the real issue
Changes from MTBE to Ethanol cause refining and delivery problems
Problems continue in Nigera
Concern about meeting demand for fuel as summer approaches (2006)
The Iranian government wants nuclear power, but purchased long range missiles while acting like loose cannons

-- Beginning of excuses for 2005 --

U.S. government reported in November an unexpected decline in oil supplies
Concern about meeting demand for fuel as winter approaches
Concern US refineries aren't recovering fast enough from the hurricane season
Tropical Storm Wilma - Oct 17 2005 - could move in to the Gulf of Mexico
Almost 19 percent of the U.S. total refining capacity is idle
French refiners might sit on the sidelines due to strikes
Fears of inadequate heating oil supplies this winter
Speculation about natural gas shortages
Debate about trade and budget deficits as US buys more fuel overseas
Are they stretching it with this one?
"Natural gas yesterday surged to a record on concern that a tropical storm system developing in the Caribbean Sea may develop into another hurricane that could cut production that has been crippled by two storms in the last month." - from September 28, 2005
And we continue...
Storms have exposed the soft underbelly of the U.S. energy system
U.S. Gulf of Mexico production remained completely shut because of Hurricane Rita
Four refineries remain shut because of damage caused by Katrina
Tropical Storm Rita will impede efforts to restore production in the Gulf of Mexico
Department of Energy said energy costs in the United States for the upcoming winter would be the highest in a decade
Gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange sent prices 25 percent higher in less than a week - Sep 1, 2005
US production recovered more slowly than expected after Katrina
Eight major refineries are shut down squeezing U.S. refining capacity
Hurricane Katrina appears to be gathering power, causing big problems
Hurricane Katrina damaged platforms and ports
A fire broke out at a Tesoro refinery in Martinez, California
Oil is effected by a superhot, panic-ridden California market
Iran parliament rejects president's choice of oil minister
Tropical Storm Katrina could threaten oil production in the Gulf of Mexico
A fire at a massive refining complex in Venezuela
In Nigeria villagers closed down a pumping facility
A 2 percent slump in US supplies signaled a thirsty market
In Ecuador protesters forced a halt to production
The oil market has not fully convinced itself that more than $60 is sustainable
US stockpile data expected to show a drop in gasoline inventories
Events in the oil-rich Middle East conspire to keep prices high
Nippon Oil Corp. suspended operations after a strong earthquake in Japan
Chevron Corp.'s refinery in El Segundo, California, shutdown for 25 days following a fire
The hot summer helped keep natural gas inventories at worrisomely low levels
ConocoPhillips' Wood River, Ill., refinery, was shut after a thunderstorm caused a power failure
Premcor Inc.'s refinery in Memphis, Tenn., was closed due to a power outage
If sanctioned by the U.S. and U.N., Iran would cut back on oil producing
The hot Chinese economy
Fear of a supply disruption
Rumours of terrorist threats to Saudi refineries
US embassy in Saudi Arabia closed for two days
Iran's decision to restart its nuclear program
Summer is the peak driving season in the US
Bombings in London
Diplomatic showdown over Iran's nuclear program
The recent death of King Fahd
Refinery outages in the United States
It is a product of trading strategies
Dicey conditions in oil producing nations
Weather related problems
Continued worldwide high demand
Strong economic growth in the US, which consumes a quarter of the world's fuel
Excessive fuel use by the US military, which use a third of US supplies
An explosion at the BP plant in Texas City, near Houston
Aging plants that are having difficulty maintaining output at high levels
Major oil reserves are becoming harder to find
Major oil reserves are more expensive to exploit
Strong demand from India
Lack of OPEC to increase oil production
Canada, which supplies oil to the US, recently signed a deal with China
Insurgents have not halted their attacks against the US military in Iraq
Insurgents have not halted their attacks against the new government in Baghdad
Anxiety over terrorism and the Iraq war
Some refineries have had to cut back production because they've been running so hard
Decreasing production in the North Sea
There are only about 1.5 million barrels of spare daily production that can be used in case of emergency
Rebel attacks on pipelines in India
A Sunoco refinery fire in Philadelphia
The threat of hurricanes
A provision in the energy bill signed by President Bush removes protections relative to MTBE
Without MTBE refiners have less flexibility in reformulating gasoline, which could drive prices up
The dollar is declining in relation to other benchmark currencies
No giant new oil fields have been found in twenty years
Critical items such as steel casing and tubing are now in short supply and expensive
Drilling and operating costs have soared
Hurricane Dennis, July 11, 2005
Hurricane Emily
Concerns that demand was straining the world's capacity to pump and refine crude oil
Nigerian rebels have warned oil companies to shut down production in the Niger delta
If Chinese demand were comparable to US demand China would consume more than what is currently being produced
Yukos bankruptcy where Yukos is a major supplier of upwards of 2% of the world's oil supply
Chavez recall vote in unstable Venezuela
Darfur's rebels and supposedly Khartoum backed militias, where the real prize is the oil wealth of the Sudan
Fear of lower US petroleum reserves
OPEC's lack of spare capacity means they can no longer control the market
Sabotaged pipelines in Iraq have added to the escalating price of oil
Fear of cold weather in the winter of 2005 - 2006
Fear that global oil reserves will be entirely depleted by 2038
Concerns over Iran’s decision to resume uranium-conversion activities



Posted by: ignition retard---------------------

Quote:
No bias in that article at all..

I also noted a bias. It appears to be biased against the lending institutions in this country. I would like to hear any of the points in that article refuted.



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Anybody been to say the UK in the past 20 years? Does the petrol there come from a different and thus more expensive source? Nope. Why is Brazil able to detach from the supply line? Commitment. We've had cheap fuel for a long time and a lack of commitment. Now everyone is lathered up because they didn't do anything to address this before it became a pain in the paycheck. Some folks figure it's easier to blame others for the problem than to actually take action... sounds like a lot of problems from riding areas to Fanny & Freddy.



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patman
Some folks figure it's easier to blame others for the problem than to actually take action


It has ever been thus, and ever more shall be.



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

Heard on the news a couple weeks about a slight drop in the price of a barrel of oil. Here in the Midwest we've seen gas drop by about 35 cents per/gal since then ($3.65 yesterday.) But diesel hasn't moved much... isn't there less labor in refining oil to diesel fuel?



Posted by: bsmith---------------------

I'm sure the fabrication of Global warming didn't help!

Run, run, the sky is falling



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2-Strokes 4-ever
Heard on the news a couple weeks about a slight drop in the price of a barrel of oil. Here in the Midwest we've seen gas drop by about 35 cents per/gal since then ($3.65 yesterday.) But diesel hasn't moved much... isn't there less labor in refining oil to diesel fuel?
Strange but true in Europe diesel is still less expensive than gasoline by a fair margin. Also consider in the Netherlands gasoline is just under $9.00 USD per gallon Can you imagine how much THEIR oil companies are ripping THEM off?! On the flip side Venezuela is the home of $0.12 USD per gallon gas! So I guess their company is doing something really wrong or maybe it is because their fuel "company" is government owned.



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patman
Some folks figure it's easier to blame others for the problem than to actually take action.


Is that why so many people blame Democrats, liberals, hippies, and space aliens for high gas prices?


http://mediamatters.org/static/vide...ve-20050428.jpg



Posted by: JuliusPleaser---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2-Strokes 4-ever
Heard on the news a couple weeks about a slight drop in the price of a barrel of oil. Here in the Midwest we've seen gas drop by about 35 cents per/gal since then ($3.65 yesterday.) But diesel hasn't moved much... isn't there less labor in refining oil to diesel fuel?



The "Democratic Congess" has been working hard for two years to keep the price of gas (and big oil's profits) at a record high.

You can't expect them to just drop the price of everything overnight.



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

We all choose an attitude.



Posted by: robwbright---------------------

Look at this graph:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...Max_630_378.png



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusPleaser
Is that why so many people blame Democrats, liberals, hippies, and space aliens for high gas prices?


http://mediamatters.org/static/vide...ve-20050428.jpg
Nope. I blame Democrats, liberals & hippies because generally they all are one in the same. I don't blame the space aliens because they have alternative power sources and are not afraid to use their power. Of course they might also leave some smoke up your butt when they probe you but not having any practical experience I couldn't say for sure.



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

Rob, the last graph is a little scary! When the banks go bye bye chaos will rule?



Posted by: BSWIFT---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliusPleaser
Is that why so many people blame Democrats, liberals, hippies, and space aliens for high gas prices?


http://mediamatters.org/static/vide...ve-20050428.jpg

If the shoe fits.....



Posted by: kschilk---------------------

I was traveling between home and work when a tire blew out. Checking my spare, I found that it too, was flat. My only option was to flag down a passing motorist and get a ride to the next town.

The first vehicle to stop was an old man in a van. He yelled out the window, 'Need a lift?'

'Yes, I sure do,' I replied.

'You a Republican or Democrat,' asked the old man.

'Republican,' I replied.

'Well, you can just go to Hell,' yelled the old man as he sped off. Another guy stopped, rolled down the window, and asked me the same question. Again, I gave the same answer, ' Republican.' The driver gave me the finger and drove off.

I thought it over and decided that maybe I should change my strategy, since this area seemed to be overly political and there appeared to be few Republicans. The next car to stop was a red convertible driven by a beautiful blonde.
She smiled seductively and asked if I was a Republican or Democrat. 'Democrat', I shouted!

'Hop in!', replied the blonde. Driving down the road, I couldn't help but stare at the gorgeous woman in the seat next to me, the wind blowing through her hair, perfect breasts and a short skirt that continued to ride higher and higher up her thighs. Finally, I yelled, 'Please stop the car!'

She immediately slammed on the brakes and as soon as the car stopped, I jumped out. 'What's the matter?', she asked.

'I can't take it anymore,' I replied. 'I've only been a Democrat for five minutes and already, I want to screw somebody!



Posted by: Patman---------------------

Interesting little tidbit today. It seems this year will be the largest recorded year ever for corn and soybean production. So it seems the fear of $12 tacos might have been a bit misplaced. Of course the Ag Dept. decided to NOT let farmers pull some land back in from conservation status either... heaven forbid there might have been even more corn & beans!



Posted by: Patman---------------------

After floating right around the $4 mark I saw some ease in the price to the $3.75ish range last week. I thought it wasn't bad until I got gas for $3.53 when we were in Boerne, Tx this weekend! That was a nice feeling but made me wonder when I'll see it locally



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

That is one that really does not figure. Same brand of gas station, same city, as much as .25 cent difference? Cheapest gas around, go to the poverty stricken areas. Again, .25 cent difference. Many moons ago, while asking a gas station about such things, he claimed no control over the price. It is controlled via satellite link! Now maybe a quarter does not seem like much. Each tank holds what, 10,000~20,000 gallons. 4~6 gas stations per 80,000 people. Nooooo, they are not MAKING money, they are stealing it! Or, more commonly referred to as politics.



Posted by: Patman---------------------

There was a Chevron with the $3.53 and across the street there was a Shell with $3.65 and a Valero at $3.69 go figure.



Posted by: truespode---------------------

$3.35 this morning in SC.

Ivan



Posted by: Jaybird---------------------

If the supply can meet the demand, then prices will be what the market will make them.
When the supply is short of the demand, the prices will be what the market will make them.
Unless of course gov sticks it's greedy hand in the till. The gov upsets the perfect balance that the magic of the free market creates.

Oil companies don't need any excuses. It's really none of the Democrats business what they charge. The free market dictates this all. And as a proven enemy of the free market, the Democrats (it's Democrat not democratic for those who are so phony they feel a name change will help to heal their ills) always want to bust the balls of anything free market related. Gov control is the goal of the Democrat leadership, as their constituencies really have no clue one way or the other, and only follow the absurd talking points of their illustrious leaders. (or is it Democratics?)

It is truly amazing, and saddening, how ignorant today's leftist is on just about any given topic.



Posted by: Solid State---------------------

It's more maddening than saddening. I respect their right to be wrong and they NEVER disappoint me.



Posted by: robwbright---------------------

"Rightists" probably aren't going to like the analysis in the following article, but I have always found Gary North to be a reasonable and very accurate historian and economist.

Before I link the article, BTW, for those who don't know, I'm, a strict constructionist Constitutionalist/Libertarian who believes there is very little actual difference in practice between the two major parties. Brief example:

BTW, do you know who Dem VP Candidate Joe Biden supported as VP candidate for Kerry?

JOHN MCCAIN - and McCain initially said he would consider it.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/?pageId=73322

Anyway, below is the article about the price of oil. Were you aware of the very recent rather large naval buildup in the Gulf? 5 carrier groups? What is the purpose and possible consequences of that? How does it potentially relate to the price of oil? See the article for Mr. North's analysis.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north648.html



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

Uh oh batman! The bank and blockade thing are not real good. Bush is going to hand Barrack one hand full of trouble for sure! Some banks have been close to folding up already. I liked your statement about the main parties being so much alike Rob, but I have no idea what you belong too?



Posted by: Patman---------------------

WOW!... Lot's of mights and maybes and what ifs in there.



Posted by: Solid State---------------------

Especially the part about Bush handing Barrack anything!!



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

http://www.peteyandpetunia.com/VoteHere/VoteHere.htm



Posted by: 2strokerfun---------------------

People want to bash parties. I've been registered as both Repub and Demo, could really care less, I vote for the person or issues, not by party.

The fact I find most amazing is that when Bush took office, I was paying $1.35 a gallon.

Call it what you want. Put blame on whoever you want to put blame on. But it still amazes me that something could go down the crapper that bad during one man's presidency.



Posted by: SpDyKen---------------------

Now we have hurricane panic to contend with.

One station (a grocery store, with a customer discount,) was at $3.52 (plus $0.03 disc.,) when they closed last night. At 3:00 pm today, they were at $5.20, then dropped to $4.60 at about 4:30. Two other discount stations nearby, (one a warehouse club,) were out of gas, and the BP & Shell had lines for their $3.99 gas.

Ridiculous!



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

What I think is so fruit is that the oil companies have raised prices based upon "this hurricane 'might' effect the refineries."
And I'm wondering how well it would go over with my customers if I say "well, a storm 'may' do damage to the storage building where the materials for your home improvement project are stored, therefore... you will have to pay more based upon an 'if." It appears that being in the oil business is a win/win situation.
From now on, if I can't make it to your home for a days work because of, rain, snow, or bad weather in general... I'll charge you anyway.
If I were to make totally self-centered, greedy business choices like these, I'd be unemployed real quick.



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

No hurricane in Northern Indiana, yet? Crude is pretty low, largest stock of reserves in quite some time, so why in the hell did it jump from 3.70 to 4.09???? It did not do this last week when the other hurricane hit? Best answer, Al gore quit buckling the jet stream in the pacific, and is seeding clouds off the coast of Africa? When basic economics do not figure, politics and greed has already taken over.



Posted by: robwbright---------------------

Sort of unrelated, but given that oil prices are directly linked to the economy and the economy is suffering greatly at the moment because of government interference in the housing market. . .

My favorite politician predicted Fannie and Freddie 5 years ago. . .

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul128.html

"This is because the special privileges granted to Fannie and Freddie have distorted the housing market by allowing them to attract capital they could not attract under pure market conditions. As a result, capital is diverted from its most productive use into housing. This reduces the efficacy of the entire market and thus reduces the standard of living of all Americans.

Despite the long-term damage to the economy inflicted by the government's interference in the housing market, the government's policy of diverting capital to other uses creates a short-term boom in housing. Like all artificially-created bubbles, the boom in housing prices cannot last forever. When housing prices fall, homeowners will experience difficulty as their equity is wiped out. Furthermore, the holders of the mortgage debt will also have a loss. These losses will be greater than they would have otherwise been had government policy not actively encouraged over-investment in housing.

Perhaps the Federal Reserve can stave off the day of reckoning by purchasing GSE debt and pumping liquidity into the housing market, but this cannot hold off the inevitable drop in the housing market forever. In fact, postponing the necessary, but painful market corrections will only deepen the inevitable fall. The more people invested in the market, the greater the effects across the economy when the bubble bursts.

No less an authority than Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has expressed concern that government subsidies provided to GSEs make investors underestimate the risk of investing in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

We're quoting Allan Greenspan? The guy who "had no idea that the subprime market had commanded such a large share of the market" while under his watch? The guy whose latest book is a revisionist fairy tale of what happened each time he ordered interest rates lowered to keep the housing market red hot?

Oh robbie! Proof that even a libertarian "free thinker" can be blithely naive.... I seriously need to get you on my friend Mike's political/pop culture email rag. You could rabble rouse the liberals, but I also guarantee you'll learn a thing or two and not go unchallenged... The conservative are mostly just angry at present, and only come out for the occasional name calling and swearing. (Seriously- He's extended an invite to you after I forwarded on some of your articles.)



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

"If" Sarah Palin gets in office, we may see some FatCats (no insult intended fatcat216 ) held accountable. I bet they're shaking in their boots at the thought of her in office. Also... wasn't her husband a snowmobile racer? I'm thinking a good amount of the sled crowd also rides dirtbikes. I believe she sees much of the environmentalist's agenda as extreme stuff. Let's make sure all conservatives make it to the polls this year! (Liberals can relax and stay home )



Posted by: Ol'89r---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by fatcat216
We're quoting Allan Greenspan? The guy who "had no idea that the subprime market had commanded such a large share of the market" while under his watch?


Right on fatcat.

It's Allan Greenspan and his successor, helicopter Ben that got us into this mess. Go back and read the very first sentence in Robs very first post in this thread. This IS the problem. Their answer to the problem is to throw more money at it.

Proof is in the last few weeks with all of the bail-outs going on. We have huge financial institutions that have been run by scoundrels. These scoundrels have cooked and bloated their books to make their companys look good. Then, they take early retirements with golden parachutes and retire with millions of dollars of investors money. Then after they are gone, they discover they company is actually in the red and has been for some time. The investors are left with a worthless company. So, the government throws a handout to them. A few million here, a few billion there. Hey, what the hell, we'll just print more. Way to go Ben.

This is just the beginning with the bail-outs. Next will be the insurance companys, (already happening) and then the auto makers. How many poorly run companys do you want to pay for and why is it up the the public to pay for poorly run companys????? If your business fails, can you go to the government for a handout? Hell no.

The more they print the less the dollars in your wallet are worth. Flooding the market with billions and billions of new dollars only devaluates the value of our dollar. In the first World War, the German Mark was devalued so much that people would burn Marks, (German Dollars) in their fireplaces to keep warm instead of fire wood. It was cheaper to burn dollars instead of buying wood. This is slowly but surely happening to our dollar.

What needs to happen is those people that bankrupt their own companys for profit should be arrested and put away for a very long time. Those companys that have been poorly run should be allowed to fail instead of bailing them out with the peoples money. Granted, this would cause a great upheaval in our financial system but, feeding more money to these crooks only prolongs the eventual 'day-of-reckoning.' Those politicians that lie and cheat and steal from the people should be made an example of. They used to tar-and -feather the *******s and run them out of town. Now they put their faces on the front page of the newspaper and talk about what a good job they are doing. Don't even get me started on the media.

Of course the American people are too busy to keep track of all this stuff. To busy working two and three jobs to pay for high gas prices and high food prices. Too busy playing on the computer watching the Jay and Larry show. It doesn't matter who is president. Either one is a loser and will continue to screw the American public. The whole liberal/ conservative movement is nothing but a distraction. Something to keep us busy arguing with each other while they screw us over and over. And it's working. Divide and conquer. We are more divided as a country than we have ever been.

What can we do? We can start by spending less time on the computer and more time writing to our political representatives and telling them how pissed off we are. How we have had a butt-full of this crap and it's time they start doing the job they were hired or elected to do. Go to the polls and vote the *******s out if they don't do what they are supposed to do. Instead of arguing with ourselves, argue with them. They are just people and can be contacted through many avenues. I can't believe that thousands of citizens are not marching on Washington right now.

Put yourself on a gold standard. Buy gold and silver and watch the value of your investment go up while the value of your dollars go down. Read as much as you can. Don't listen to the television media because they have been bought-off too and are lying to you as much as the politicians are.

Should we be happy that we are now only paying $3.50 a gallon for gas because six months ago we were paying over $4.00? No, because not long over a year ago we were paying half that amount. But people have been lulled into thinking we are getting a break now. Very sad.

It's up to we the people to make America great again. If we rely on our political representatives to get us out of this we are only going to get deeper and deeper in a pile of poo. Get off your asses and do SOMETHING.



Posted by: truespode---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2-Strokes 4-ever
"If" Sarah Palin gets in office, we may see some FatCats (no insult intended fatcat216 ) held accountable.



No politician will ever hold the right people accountable... they will just blame the other party.

Things will only get worse until people stop taking sides and start solving problems.

Ivan



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by truespode
No politician will ever hold the right people accountable... they will just blame the other party.

Things will only get worse until people stop taking sides and start solving problems.

Ivan

First sentence: Pretty broad statement (like a politician?) with a blame pointed at someone else.
Second sentence: True in my opinion, but I can't do it all... which is why we elect those to represent us.



Posted by: truespode---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2-Strokes 4-ever
First sentence: Pretty broad statement (like a politician?) with a blame pointed at someone else.
Second sentence: True in my opinion, but I can't do it all... which is why we elect those to represent us.



Yes I blame the politicians in power. I voted and they got elected. Their responsibility is to my counties welfare, state's welfare and country welfare depending on who I voted for. That is what I voted them in for!

But they refuse to look out for their constituents welfare and constantly point fingers and avoid responsibility.

Even if I vote someone else in they will do the same (because that is the way it has always been)... I see it already on the political ads which basically say, "vote for me because I'm not the other guy."

We have to start voting in those not on the ballot, even if it is monkey or a dog it would at least put something competent in office or maybe send a message that we refuse to accept what our governmental leaders have turned into.

Ivan



Posted by: 2-Strokes 4-ever---------------------

Well said.
Straying from "gas and why" for a moment...
I believe this whole ugly, financial mess that America is in, is MY fault. I'm greedy. If I want "stuff" so badly that I'll go beyond logic (what I can afford) to someone greedy like me who paints a rosey enough picture saying "sure, you can afford it, we'll lend it to you", then I AM the knucklehead for believing what I WANT to believe even if it's totally illogical. And do I often vote for who'll put the most money in my pocket?
A quest for "what I deserve" has no boundries.
The pursuit of "want and happiness" is an unfullfilled addiction.
But serving "needs and fullfillment" builds character and maturity.
We'll be dead and gone someday throwing our kids under this bus we've empowered... and what a selfish, greedy, "someone elses fault" example we have left them with.

The blame is in the mirror.
Good news! (I'm going riding Saturday )



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

hmmm. a citizen's march.



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ol'89r
This is just the beginning with the bail-outs..... and then the auto makers.



Already happened.

The Next Bailout Is Old News

By Charles Delvalle

After the recent bailout of AIG, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae, investors are wondering if the Big Three - Chrysler, GM, and Ford - are next. Sorry to tell you, but they've already been bailed out.

It happened without much fanfare last December, when Congress approved a $25 billion loan package for the Big Three (about $8.3 billion per automaker). This loan was passed in part to help spur the development of fuel-efficient engines, designs, and technologies.




Posted by: Ol'89r---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vic
Already happened.
The Next Bailout Is Old News
.[/b]



Well, there ya go.

We're screwed.



Posted by: Vic---------------------

One thing to keep in mind is that most of the woes that these companies face were CAUSED by government mandates. So, they CAUSE the problem, then ride in on their white horse to fix it with OUR money. Unfortunately, we have a HUGE segment of the population that thinks government is the ANSWER, when, in fact, it is the PROBLEM.



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Here's a good read.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArt...306716557967194



Posted by: Jaybird---------------------

When I was in high school, I moved from one school to another rival school. I played football, and when I joined the rival school team, I decided to sandbag at practices a bit...hell the coaches didn't know me or my limits. I would especially sandbag during wind sprints, but one day I was up against a pal who I wanted to beat, so I poured it on. Big mistake...the D coach was paying attention to the sprint races.
He motioned me over before I even had my breath back, and said "Burke my friend, you are seriously ******ed from now on".

I want everyone to take close notice of how fast our government, including both the administration and the congress, moved on this economic bailout issue.
We should from now on hold congress and the administration to such expediency and hard work in the future. Won't happen, but by gawd it should! But I digress....

The gov made talk of the formation of an additional agency, that would take on the bad dept that financial institutions are holding. This made the market soar, and rightly so. If I were a finance man, I would think it a great thing to have someone shoulder my bad debts. What a deal! And I would also be thinking that those loans that I have that are not 100% golden...meaning the ones that do not pay their bills a week or two in advance every month, are going to be put on my bad debt roster.
I will make certain that if I have someone that is, ohhh I dunno, maybe a DAY late, they will be put on the bad debt list. This will make things just peachy keano for the loan holders, but look out consumers.

This whole thing scares me (as a consumer and not a finance man) at first sight.
What say you, Vic?

(I have yet to see ONE instance where our gov taking over anything at all turned out well)



Posted by: whenfoxforks-ruled---------------------

AIG was reported to have holdings in the trillions. What would have happened if they went belly up? Our national debt is the only one capable of taking on such a load? Who is next? The bail out ball is rolling. WAMU was on the chopping block early this week. A lot of the issues are coming to press after the fact. Gas started this thread, there is more on the market than has been in a long time. Too bad it has not been reflected at the pumps. Sure a lot of talk about more drilling off shore, and busting open Alaska. May be why why our prices are not the same as other countries? Now stepping in and putting watch dogs and/or over hauling wall street is in order? So much for free enterprise? Bad to worse, and we are just along for the ride.



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaybird
What say you, Vic?




I think it sucks. I HATE the fact that Uncle Sam has his fingers in everything. I also HATE the fact that the criminals on Wall Street are able to get away with shorting stock that doesn't exist and other such shenanigans. But, I think we are on the verge of the greatest worldwide economic expansion of all time. In ten years we'll all wonder what all the fuss was about.



Posted by: BSWIFT---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vic
But, I think we are on the verge of the greatest worldwide economic expansion of all time. In ten years we'll all wonder what all the fuss was about.

Next "arms race"?



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Vic I find your comments and your link pretty interesting. With due respect to Adam Smith, the Invisible Hand can be quite brutal, not only to the financiers, but to the common folk. Unregulated- the Invisible Hand can bring us economies of scale that result in ruthless monopolies, The Great Depression, The dust Bowl, flight of industries in search of cheap labor leaving a country with no manufacturing base and only two industries- paper pushers and house builders.
The invisible hand brings us doctors who sell expensive medical procedures rather than wellness.

Unregulated, we have short selling that- like unregulated purchasing of commodities futures -is mere gambling rather than investment. It is not ownership in an economy. Shorting stock in some industries is not causing a problem, and yet you are angry about it?? This is free enterprise at its finest under your Adam Smith world. Likewise unfettered investment in derivatives and stock by pension funds, the breakdown of visible industry lines between finance and insurance that has resulted in this calamity-?? More Adam Smith.

It is a fact that all institutions- whether it is baseball, finance, providing healthcare, building roads, or fighting wars -require rules of engagement. Those rules are "government". If you don't like the rules, work to change them. Otherwise- special interests ie. the people who work in those industries, are going to seek rules in ways they believe to be favorable to themselves. They will claim "risk" & "the invisible hand of the marketplace" and "self regulation" will prevent them from bad decisions. Hmmm. I think that has not happened here.

It's a fact that regulations chase the marketplace, rather than precede it. Yes, innovations occur that require different oversight, different rules. Some quick examples that come to mind- tax related- read about any of the BIG FIVE and their history in the last fifteen or 30 years- they provide new tax products that later are declared illegal. Sometimes legislatively, sometimes prosecutorily by your friends the IRS. Every major firm has been involved in this in some fashion. ...or... in the case the shorting of stock, or manipulation of the marketplace by commodities futures brokers- regulations that are going to come into line that require more order to the market place- investors who are investors rather than gamblers... stability. Those regulations will be loosened if the flow of money is stifed to the point innovation is lacking or an industry needs greater capital.

What we are looking for is order in our society-, confidence that it will go on. Rules, structures, regulations... GOVERNMENT... can impose those rules for protection of the greater good. That is not a bad thing, necessarily.

The invisible hand brought us three automanufacturers who put out SUV after SUV. Somebody was buying them, were they not?? While I was researching electric motorcycles and mopeds, knowing the day would come, the market was demanding more 10 mpg vehicles. Governments, as well as private investors, have the ability to invest in ideas that the short sighted supply and demand cannot and will not ask for "yet".

Governments can build roads, schools, can provide dollars for research. Private investors can too....but... many a good "cure" is not on the horizon because it is more profitable to treat the symptoms.

The rag against government is silly and naive. We require governments, we require rules of engagement. We require order.

What you need to ask yourself is what quality of individual do you want making those rules? How involved will you become in learning about these complex issues rather than relying on knee jerk reactions. (Vic this rant isn't directed at you, just the universe at large.)

Sorry this isn't written better everyone. I honestly have a lot to say on this topic, but undoubtedly it will fall on deaf ears. No one wants to get involved. No one wants to try to understand complex issues. We're spoon fed crap by every news organization in the US. (This latest financial crisis may be the first objective, thoughtful reporting I've seen in the last year.)

You all need to take responsibility with your consumer choices and your election choices and most of all, by educating yourselves on what these things are really about and what you want the world to look like. No bogey man and 3 trillion dollar wars (destabilizing a whole region and bankrupting our pocketbooks) to comfort yourself so you don't have to learn about hard topics, write a thoughtful letter, go to a town hall meeting, hold your congressman and senator responsible. Hate and blame is easy. Thoughtful participation is not.

If you don't get involved in the governing process you are just going to get more crap. Plain and simple.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Government Brought me:

clean air, drinkable water, protection from other pollutants, national parks, interstate highways, public education, fire protection, police protection, (international and local), university education, social security, medicare/medicaid (yes, I'm proud that we have some form of protection for those in need in our society), laws which require a minimal level of safety in products...
a federal reserve (oil), dialogues and institutions for cooperative work between countries, which presumably has cut down on warring.

You'd give all that up Jay?? And let the captains of industry have a go at it?

hmmm. I wonder if you really would.



Posted by: Jaybird---------------------

Pick just one of the things that you claim gov has brought you and then show me how the gov does a better job than private industry in ANY of them.

Public education? Have you got kids in public schools?
Social security? Yeah, what a great bunch of return that investment is. Please....
Protection from pollutants? Like the dreaded Co2?

I'm sorry, but you have given many fine examples of government blunders.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Yes I have children in public school. Maybe things are different here- because the doctors and lawyers kids all go to public schools. Presumably, under your test of adequacy and what is good for society, these people would buy their way out of a horrible system. The fact is, we have exceptional education here.

As to clean water, clean everything? With 1305 superfund cleanup sites, you'd leave it to the society to police itself? Why not take away the speed limit to Jay, why not have everyone be responsible for their own fires? Why have any laws at all?

Your argument is not sound. Sorry.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

as to social security- yeah. I can see why you'd want to have everyone get a great return on investment with higher yields, what with the way the stock market and banking is. Sure- go ahead, privatize. I can see after the last two weeks why that is such a marvelous idea.



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by fatcat216
Vic I find your comments and your link pretty interesting. With due respect to Adam Smith, the Invisible Hand can be quite brutal, not only to the financiers, but to the common folk. Unregulated- the Invisible Hand can bring us economies of scale that result in ruthless monopolies, The Great Depression, The dust Bowl, flight of industries in search of cheap labor leaving a country with no manufacturing base and only two industries- paper pushers and house builders.
The invisible hand brings us doctors who sell expensive medical procedures rather than wellness.



It's interesting that you think the "invisible hand" creates those problems. I especially like your last example. I'm sure you've heard of Medicare. Maybe you've not had the experience of watching doctors milking it for everything it's worth while offering false hope.

I do think that government has it's place. The problem is, it wants every place.



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by fatcat216
Sure- go ahead, privatize. I can see after the last two weeks why that is such a marvelous idea.


Talk about short sighted and knee-jerk.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Quote:
Keep Wall Street Out of the Retirement Business


Should we trust the folks who brought us Lehman and AIG with a privatized Social Security system? Should we trust them with our 401(k)s?
by Chris Farrell

INVESTING

* Stocks Soar on Historic Bailout Plan
* Strong Push for an RTC-Type Solution to the Crisis
* Stovall: Financials Find a Friend in the Feds
* Keep Wall Street Out of the Retirement Business
* Morgan Stanley's Bank Shot


STORY TOOLS

* post a comment
* e-mail this story
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* digg this
* save to del.icio.us

Click here to find out more!

Remember the Bush Administration's push to partially privatize Social Security? The privatization advocates warned that insolvency loomed unless dramatic changes were made to the system. Social Security was also labeled a terrible investment. The Bush team's argument: Let people invest a portion of their payroll tax money with the financial wizards of Wall Street in an account reminiscent of a 401(k). Workers would get a higher rate of return on their Social Security money, and the economy would benefit from a higher rate of savings.

"We heard the fear that Social Security will go bankrupt and the solution is privatize it," says Zvi Bodie, a finance professor at Boston University. "Yeah, right! It was a self-serving proposal from industry."

Imagine Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers ( LEH), American International Group ( AIG), and other titans of finance managing Social Security? The late economist Robert Eisner told me during an interview in the early 1990s that "Social Security was not meant to be a get-rich scheme or a competitor to go-go funds." He was right.

SO MANY RESPONSIBILITIES
Question is, in light of the current turmoil in the financial markets, should Wall Street manage any of our long-term retirement savings funds? Is the 401(k) plan, which has become the main retirement savings vehicle for the American worker over the past three decades, a mistake? The case for rethinking the 401(k) as a pillar of retirement savings is compelling.

To be clear, the democratization of stock ownership is a welcome and powerful trend. Two hundred years after 24 New York brokers and merchants met on Wall Street to sign the "Buttonwood Agreement," a pact that established standard commissions for trading securities, investing now has all the characteristics of a mass social movement. People's Capitalism has helped fuel entrepreneurship and risk-taking. Despite abuses, stocks options, restricted stock, profit sharing plans, and similar equity-based compensation schemes are critical building blocks to innovation, the driving force behind economic growth. Thanks to the Internet and advanced telecommunications networks, it's cheaper than ever for individual investors to buy securities.

No, the question is focused on retirement savings, the money employees set aside during their working years to smooth out their standard of living in retirement. Employees bear all the responsibility if they make mistakes, and time to make up for investment mishaps shrinks as stomachs go slack and hair turns gray. It's an axiom of modern finance that the only way to create the possibility of higher returns is to take on greater risk. But the risks employees are absorbing today seem disproportionate to the potential rewards.

For one thing, most employees work for companies that demand more of their time and effort, and that effort is showing up in high productivity numbers. For another, most people not only work but they also raise families, help their children with homework, spend time with friends, volunteer in the local community, vote in elections, and try and maintain their health with exercise and eating properly. At least, even if they fall short, these are all things they try to do and are encouraged to do. Yet, on top of all that, they're supposed to know how to allocate investment assets for when they retire in 5, 10, 20, or 30 years from now.




Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Because I was unfortunate enough to be born to a mother who only worked in a factory, and suffered serious challenges with mental illness- Medicaid fixed my broken elbow when I was an 18 year old with no insurance who fell on a bicycle. My family doctor didn't take medicaid and I worked long and hard to pay his portion.

Next.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Vic- you truly believe the 20s stock market crash and Great Depression was caused by Government??



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Why don't we let individuals decide what's best for them. I think that's what's called "freedom".



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

So- no rules, no laws?



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by fatcat216
Because I was unfortunate enough to be born to a mother who only worked in a factory, and suffered serious challenges with mental illness- Medicaid fixed my broken elbow when I was an 18 year old with no insurance who fell on a bicycle. My family doctor didn't take medicaid and I worked long and hard to pay his portion.

Next.


That is unfortunate. I suppose you would have liked me to pay for it.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

I think you did. And thank you.



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by fatcat216
So- no rules, no laws?


Less rules, less laws. MORE personal accountability.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

and I've gone on throughout my adult life to pay for others, and to help educate children in my community to a standard that they can contribute in positive ways throughout their lives.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vic
Less rules, less laws. MORE personal accountability.


Doesn't sound like we disagree at all.

And when personal accountability fails? Who would you have hold that person or institution (corporation or otherwise) accountable?



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by fatcat216
Vic- you truly believe the 20s stock market crash and Great Depression was caused by Government??


No question government contributed to the severity.

You sat through a lot of economics lectures in college, didn't you?



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by fatcat216
I think you did. And thank you.


Didn't you already say you paid for it?



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vic
No question government contributed to the severity.

You sat through a lot of economics lectures in college, didn't you?


Vic, please explain in what ways you believe government contributed to the severity of the problem.

As to you second comment, if you are "calling me stupid" please, if makes you feel better, go ahead call me stupid, or lazy or what have you. But, it seems it would serve you much better to explain to me your thoughts on why you believe the severity was made worse, than to call me stupid.

I'm listening either way.



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by fatcat216
and I've gone on throughout my adult life to pay for others, and to help educate children in my community to a standard that they can contribute in positive ways throughout their lives.


So have I. And I could have done it better and more efficiently if I had the dollars that politicians have stolen from me to pay for your vote.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vic
Didn't you already say you paid for it?


Thanks to a receptionist/intake person at the hospital- because I certainly didn't know anything about these things at that age, nor was brought up to accept those things- I'm afraid the hospital and surgeons and anaesthesia were paid for by your tax dollars. My family doctor portion was paid for my my waitress dollars.

No physical therapy.

And you can cringe, but honestly, everytime any of us uses insurance, you pay through higher premiums (directly or indirectly through your employer.)

The only way any of us DOES NOT pay for the other guys use of the system is if NONE of us are insured- publicly or privately- whether it be health, auto or house. You'll be paying for Hurricanes Katrina, Ike, etc. and through higher premiums for the next two decades, I'm afraid.



Posted by: Vic---------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by fatcat216

As to you second comment, if you are "calling me stupid" please, if makes you feel better, go ahead call me stupid, or lazy or what have you. But, it seems it would serve you much better to explain to me your thoughts on why you believe the severity was made worse, than to call me stupid.

I'm listening either way.


I wasn't calling you anything. But after that post, I will now say that you are silly. I don't really see how it serves me in any way to explain anything to you.

I'm going to go about my life, now. If it makes you feel better to go on, go ahead.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

I'm sorry I've offended you by whatever I said that is silly. I honestly wanted to understand and keep from attacks on character. I truly wanted to hear your side, because I welcome hearing others opinions, especially people who are respected by others and whose opinions are sought by others.

Have a great day. Thanks for your input.



Posted by: fatcat216---------------------

It serves you, because, if you can persuade me- I vote, I campaign, I write letters to politicians, I participate with others and share ideas like these... I participate in the process helping to make rules.....

So, I guess we both lose.




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